The institutional cluster is too balanced to provide a clear directional signal. Watch for a follow-on catalyst — an earnings beat or a material new partnership would validate the Two Sigma/Morgan Stanley buying thesis. Conversely, if Citadel and UBS continue reducing next quarter, the selling pressure is more durable than the buying.
Executive Summary
AI (C3.ai) Q3 2025 13F cluster shows net buying of $64.9M by 5 institutions vs -$64.1M selling by 4, for a tiny net positive of ~$800K. The cluster is mixed: Two Sigma opened a new $13.4M position and Morgan Stanley doubled to $82.1M, but Citadel slashed 58% of its holdings (-$42.4M) and UBS trimmed meaningfully. With 9 institutions split 5/4 but the largest single-dollar action being a massive seller (Citadel), the institutional conviction is ambiguous and likely reflects the stock's weak fundamental narrative — low revenue growth, high cash burn, and a bearish analyst consensus (only 5% bullish). The net cluster signal is not strong enough to override the stock's fundamental headwinds.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $800.0K
▲ Buyers (5)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.E. Shaw | ADD | +56.4% | $10.4M | $976.0K |
| BofA | DOUBLED | +358.9% | $10.5M | $7.3M |
| Two Sigma | NEW | — | $13.4M | $13.4M |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | ADD | +77.1% | $31.3M | $6.3M |
| Morgan Stanley | DOUBLED | +157.9% | $82.1M | $37.0M |
▼ Sellers (4)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity | TRIM | -48% | $255.0K | -$161.7K |
| Citadel | TRIM | -58.3% | $60.0M | -$42.4M |
| UBS | TRIM | -35.6% | $30.1M | -$16.4M |
| UBS Am, A Distinct Business Un | TRIM | -40.7% | $8.8M | -$5.1M |
Key Facts
- 5 institutional buyers added $64.9M in new positions, led by Morgan Stanley doubling ($37.0M increase) and Two Sigma's new $13.4M position
- 4 institutional sellers trimmed by $64.1M, led by Citadel cutting 58% (-$42.4M) and UBS trimming 36% (-$16.4M)
- Net aggregate institutional change is negligible at approximately +$0.8M across 9 filers
- Active and quant funds (D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Citadel) are split: two buying, one selling heavily
Financial Impact
9 institutions reported $147.6M in aggregate AI holdings; net buying was approximately $0.8M, a negligible move relative to the $1.6B market cap
Risk Factors
- 13F data is 45+ days stale — clusters may have already been unwound
- Citadel is the single largest directional actor (-$42.4M), suggesting a bearish thesis from a historically sophisticated quant fund
- Analyst consensus is heavily bearish (5% bullish, 12 sell/strong sell) — institutional buying may be index-rebalancing or passive, not fundamental conviction
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-AI-2025-Q3 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 14, 2026 11d ago | Insider Cluster | $12.16 $11.32 | ▲ +6.91% | ▲ +5.80% | — |
Oct 14, 2026 11d ago | Insider Cluster | $12.16 $11.32 | ▲ +6.91% | ▲ +5.80% | — |
Oct 13, 2026 12d ago | 144 | $12.01 $11.67 | ▼ −2.83% | ▼ −1.75% | — |
Sep 17, 2026 5w ago | Insider Cluster | $10.48 $10.84 | ▼ −3.44% | ▼ −1.88% | — |
Aug 13, 2026 10w ago | Insider Cluster | $9.93 $9.70 | ▲ +2.32% | ▲ +1.84% | — |
Aug 13, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $10.18 $9.93 | ▼ −2.46% | ▼ −2.26% | — |
Aug 6, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $10.22 $10.40 | ▼ −1.76% | ▼ −1.79% | — |
Jul 2, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $9.28 $8.93 | ▼ −3.77% | ▼ −3.30% | — |
Jun 17, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $10.30 $9.70 | ▲ +5.83% | ▲ +5.51% | — |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $10.90 $11.03 | ▲ +1.19% | ▼ −0.57% | — |
US Market Status
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