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S-3 ·Filed Mar 23, 2026

AARD

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonimmediate Processed7mo ago SEC0001193125-26-119973
Shelf registration — potential dilution
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Monitor for imminent ATM share sales given the clinical trial setbacks and the immediate availability of the $150 million ATM program. The stock is likely to face significant downward pressure when sales begin, as the offering size exceeds the company's current market value.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
AARD ▲ +4.24% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -4.24% · α vs SPY +10.08% · entry $3.77 → $3.93
Entry = T+0 close
Mar 23, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-6.10%
call +6.10% · α +6.67%
$3.54
settled 7mo ago
T+5d
0.00%
call 0.00% · α -0.42%
$3.77
settled 7mo ago
T+20d
+46.68%
call -46.68% · α -37.78%
$5.53
settled 6mo ago
T+60d
+4.24%
call -4.24% · α +10.08%
$3.93
settled 4mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Aardvark Therapeutics has filed an S-3 shelf registration allowing it to raise up to $400 million through various securities offerings, including a $150 million ATM program with Piper Sandler. This signals a need for capital, especially after pausing key clinical trials due to safety concerns, which increases the likelihood of near-term share issuance and dilution.

Key Financial Metrics

Offering Size
$150.0M

Key Facts

  • Company filed S-3 shelf registration for up to $400 million in securities offerings
  • $150 million of the shelf is allocated to an ATM program with Piper Sandler for common stock
  • Clinical trials (HERO, POWER, STRENGTH) paused due to safety concerns in healthy volunteer study
  • Market cap is $89 million, making the $150 million offering size extremely dilutive (169% of current market cap)
  • Company has $126.4 million in cash as of September 30, 2025, but is burning cash rapidly ($37.4 million in 9 months)

Financial Impact

$150 million in potential dilution from ATM program, representing 169% of current $89 million market cap

dilutionmarket capshare countcash position

Risk Factors

  • Significant dilution from ATM share sales
  • Clinical trial setbacks may delay or prevent product approval
  • Cash burn rate may necessitate additional fundraising

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
S-3 Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-119973
Document: ck0001774857-ex4_2.htm0001193125-26-119973
Document: ck0001774857-ex1_2.htm0001193125-26-119973
CONTEXT: 10-Q (2025-11-13)0001193125-25-280260
16 reports for AARD
Performance horizon
80% Hit rate @ T+1 8 of 10 directional calls Went positive at some point 8 of 10 best @ T+20▲ +31.96%May 7, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for AARD — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 23, 2026
3d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$1.39 $1.08▼ −22.30%▼ −23.01%$1.08 (−22.30%)
Oct 22, 2026
4d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.39 $1.08▼ −22.30%▼ −23.01%$1.08 (−22.30%)
Oct 22, 2026
4d ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.39 $1.08▼ −22.30%▼ −23.01%$1.08 (−22.30%)
Oct 8, 2026
18d ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$4.76 $4.45▼ −6.51%▼ −6.45%$1.08 (−77.31%)
Oct 8, 2026
18d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$4.76 $4.45▼ −6.51%▼ −6.45%$1.08 (−77.31%)
Aug 12, 2026
10w ago
Institutional Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$6.57 $6.41▲ +2.44%▲ +3.13%$1.08 (+83.56%)
Aug 11, 2026
10w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$6.57 $6.41▲ +2.44%▲ +3.13%$1.08 (+83.56%)
Aug 11, 2026
10w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$6.57 $6.41▲ +2.44%▲ +3.13%$1.08 (+83.56%)
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$3.64 $3.90▲ +7.14%▲ +6.60%$1.08 (−70.33%)
May 14, 2026
23w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$4.57 $4.36▲ +4.60%▲ +4.53%$1.08 (+76.37%)
Showing 10 of 16

US Market Status

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Report published Mar 23, 2026