The EPS beat is strong but revenue missed consensus, and the sequential decline in Aluminum segment EBITDA from $1.07B to $862M signals margin compression on lower aluminum prices. Watch Q4 guidance for aluminum pricing trends and the AliGroup acquisition timeline — any delay or cost overrun on the ~$3.1B deal would pressure the stock.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Alcoa reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.82, beating consensus of $1.56 by 16.8%, on revenue of $3.704B (below $3.81B consensus). The beat was driven by strong aluminum segment performance (Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $862M) and higher alumina prices, though total revenue fell 7% sequentially on lower aluminum shipments and prices. The company reaffirmed full-year production guidance and advanced the AliGroup acquisition (South32 shareholder approval received), while issuing $2.6B in debt to fund the ~$3.1B cash consideration.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Adjusted EPS $1.82 vs consensus $1.56 (beat by 16.8%)
- Revenue $3.704B vs consensus $3.81B (miss by 2.8%)
- Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items $789M, down from $901M in Q2 2026 but up from $270M in Q3 2025
- Cash from operations $643M; free cash flow $472M
- Cash balance $4.4B including $2.6B in debt proceeds for AliGroup acquisition
- Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA $862M (down from $1,073M in Q2 2026)
- Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA -$1M (improved from -$96M in Q2 2026)
- Reaffirmed 2026 alumina production 9.5-9.6M metric tons and aluminum production 2.4-2.6M metric tons
- South32 shareholders approved AliGroup acquisition on October 15, 2026; closing expected H1 2027
- Completed $2.6B debt offering for AliGroup acquisition; terminated bridge financing commitments
- Entered definitive sale agreements for Massena East site with potential proceeds up to $315M
Financial Impact
EPS beat of $0.26 (16.8%) vs consensus; revenue miss of ~$106M (2.8%) vs consensus
Risk Factors
- Aluminum prices declining — average realized price fell from $4,752/mt in Q2 to $4,527/mt in Q3
- AliGroup acquisition execution risk — $3.1B cash consideration funded by $2.6B new debt, increasing total debt to $4.8B
- Section 232 tariff costs expected to increase ~$35M sequentially in Q4
- Higher raw material costs and planned maintenance expected to pressure Aluminum EBITDA by ~$30M in Q4
- Alumina segment remains marginally EBITDA-negative (-$1M) despite improvement
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-422891 |
| Document: aa-20261015.htm | 0001193125-26-422891 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-422891-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-422891 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-422891-index.html | 0001193125-26-422891 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-422891.txt | 0001193125-26-422891 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001193125-26-422891 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | Institutional Cluster | $37.91 $38.70 | ▼ −2.08% | ▼ −1.37% | $39.62 (−4.51%) |
Oct 16, 2026 10d ago | 425 | $41.67 $40.79 | ▼ −2.11% | ▼ −2.45% | $39.62 (−4.92%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | 425 | $41.45 $41.67 | ▲ +0.53% | ▲ +0.11% | $39.62 (−4.41%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | 8-K | $41.45 $41.67 | ▲ +0.53% | ▲ +0.11% | $39.62 (−4.41%) |
Sep 23, 2026 4w ago | 425 | $42.68 $42.85 | ▲ +0.40% | ▼ −0.15% | $39.62 (−7.17%) |
Sep 23, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $42.68 $42.85 | ▲ +0.40% | ▼ −0.15% | $39.62 (−7.17%) |
Sep 11, 2026 6w ago | 425 | $48.26 $46.95 | ▼ −2.71% | ▼ −2.27% | $39.62 (−17.90%) |
Sep 11, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $48.26 $46.95 | ▼ −2.71% | ▼ −2.27% | $39.62 (−17.90%) |
Sep 9, 2026 6w ago | 425 / 8-K | $50.73 $48.30 | ▼ −4.79% | ▼ −4.19% | $39.62 (−21.90%) |
Sep 9, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $50.73 $48.30 | ▼ −4.79% | ▼ −4.19% | $39.62 (−21.90%) |
US Market Status
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