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Market Narratives

Archived report — the themes moving the market on this date.

As of Oct 26, 2026
3 themes· 7 leaders· 10 laggards
RUNNING Defense Stocks Surge on Iran Conflict & Lockheed Martin Earnings
STRENGTH 67
Defense primes diverge as Iran conflict and Lockheed earnings ignite a theme that has left key laggards behind.

A powerful defense rally has lifted select names, but two major primes have actually fallen sharply over the past three months, creating a wide performance gap versus the leaders. The sustained geopolitical catalyst from the Iran conflict and Lockheed's strong earnings beat with raised guidance and a record backlog have driven the leaders, yet the laggards have not participated at all. This divergence highlights a theme where the narrative is running but not all names are moving together.

LEADERS already moved
GD
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP
+14.0%5D +2.3%
Large $94.9B
LAGGARDS room to catch up
HII
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC.
-11.3%5D +1.6%
Large $11.0B GAP+25.3% WEAK QUANT BELOW 200DMA
Huntington Ingalls near 52-week lows; naval shipbuilding demand should benefit from geopolitical tensions
Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.
RTX
RTX Corp
-12.3%5D -0.6%
Mega $262.7B GAP+26.2% BELOW 200DMA
RTX has negative 3-month returns and deteriorating estimate revisions despite defense backdrop
Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.
CATALYST

Lockheed Martin reported Q3 2026 earnings that beat estimates, raised full-year guidance, and disclosed a record backlog, while Morgan Stanley issued a note citing a new Pentagon framework agreement for F-35 production, and the Iran war provides a sustained geopolitical catalyst with US and Israeli officials discussing further strikes. cnbc.comfinance.yahoo.commsn.comfoxnews.com

RUNNING Oil & Energy Surge on Iran War Supply Fears
STRENGTH 65
Oil & Energy Surge as Iran War Fears Tighten Supply, Leaders Outrun Laggards

Oil prices have surged to multi-month highs as the US-Iran conflict intensifies, threatening Persian Gulf supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. US energy stocks have rallied sharply, with leaders like APA, MUR, DVN, OXY, and EOG posting strong gains, while large-cap laggards FANG, SLB, and HAL have barely moved or fallen, creating a wide performance gap within the same theme.

LEADERS already moved
APA
APA Corp
+29.0%5D +4.3%
Large $17.3B
MUR
MURPHY OIL CORP
+20.7%5D +4.2%
Mid $6.1B WEAK QUANT
DVN
DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE
+19.8%5D +0.9%
Large $54.1B
OXY
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/
+17.4%5D +2.3%
Large $62.5B
EOG
EOG RESOURCES INC
+17.0%5D +3.4%
Large $82.9B OVERBOUGHT
LAGGARDS room to catch up
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
+7.5%5D +1.3%
Large $55.2B GAP+12.4%
Permian pure-play that surged on Friday with oil above
Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.
SLB
SLB LIMITED/NV
+3.5%5D +8.1%
Large $73.5B GAP+16.3% WEAK QUANT
Oilfield services giant with flat 3-month returns and deteriorating estimate revisions
Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.
HAL
HALLIBURTON CO
-15.4%5D +5.9%
Large $27.7B GAP+35.3% DOWNTREND
Oilfield services provider that has lagged the producer-led energy rally
Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.
CATALYST

WTI crude surged to five-month highs as the US-Iran war intensified, with Brent crude also topping recent levels, before pulling back slightly on diplomatic hopes, though prices remain elevated as the US and Israel plan potential further strikes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane remains contested. energynow.com247wallst.comsg.finance.yahoo.combaystreet.ca

RUNNING ESMO 2026 Cancer Data Readouts Driving Biotech Movers
STRENGTH 64
ESMO data flow splits the field: leaders already rewarded, laggards still waiting for their turn.

The ESMO 2026 Congress is generating clear separation among oncology biotechs. Names that presented strong data have already moved, while several same-theme names have rallied only modestly or stayed flat, trailing the leaders by a very wide margin. The gap between the rewarded and the unrewarded is stark.

LEADERS already moved
IOVA
IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC.
+247.4%5D -0.8%
Mid $6.4B OVERBOUGHT
LAGGARDS room to catch up
XLO
Xilio Therapeutics, Inc.
+9.5%5D -9.1%
Micro $53M GAP+237.8% BELOW 200DMA
Announced first patient dosed in Phase 1/2 trial of XTX501; small cap with limited price reaction
Nimble — a smaller name that can close the gap quickly.
ORIC
Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
+8.7%5D +3.5%
Small $1.4B GAP+238.7% BELOW 200DMA
Presented Phase 1b enozertinib data at ESMO; stock has not moved on the data
Nimble — a smaller name that can close the gap quickly.
ZYME
Zymeworks Inc.
+8.2%5D +10.5%
Mid $2.0B GAP+239.2%
Presented Phase 1 ZW191 data at ESMO; strong buy consensus with mean target implying significant upside
MGNX
MACROGENICS INC
—5D -32.4%
Micro $231M
Reported positive interim Phase 2 LINNET data for lorigerlimab at ESMO but stock remains near lows with huge analyst upside
Nimble — a smaller name that can close the gap quickly.
IMRX
Immuneering Corp
—5D +1.9%
Micro $246M
Presented Phase 3 MAPKeeper 301 trial design at ESMO; stock near 52-week low
Nimble — a smaller name that can close the gap quickly.
CATALYST

At the ESMO 2026 Congress in Madrid, Iovance presented final Phase 2 data for lifileucel TIL therapy plus pembrolizumab in frontline advanced melanoma, MacroGenics announced positive interim Phase 2 LINNET results for lorigerlimab in advanced clear cell gynecologic cancer, Zymeworks presented Phase 1 data for ZW191 in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, and Summit Therapeutics is featuring ivonescimab data across multiple tumor types. markets.businessinsider.comglobenewswire.comstreetinsider.commarketscreener.comglobenewswire.com