SecBot — Market Narratives

RUNNING Iran Oil Shock — Crude Producers

STRENGTH 21

Iran ceasefire collapse jolts crude higher, leaving laggard E&Ps with a widening catch-up gap.

The geopolitical risk premium is repricing crude sharply higher after the US-Iran ceasefire was declared over, directly boosting US E&P producers. While leaders have already rallied, several heavyweights have barely moved or slipped, creating a meaningful catch-up opportunity as the market reprices the group from a position of relative weakness.

LEADERS already moved

APA

APA Corp

+19.9%5D +8.8%

Large $12.0B WEAK QUANT

LAGGARDS room to catch up

FANG

Diamondback Energy, Inc.

+5.3%5D +6.7%

Large $50.8B GAP +14.6%

Pure-play Permian Basin producer with low-cost structure; has lagged the group

Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.

CTRA

Coterra Energy Inc.

+0.6%5D —

GAP +19.3%

Appalachian and Permian gas-and-oil balanced producer; flat-to-down momentum, potential catch-up candidate

EOG

EOG RESOURCES INC

-5.2%5D +6.3%

Large $71.7B GAP +25.1% WEAK QUANT

Resilient during the oil-sector drawdown with improving estimate revisions and very low leverage

Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.

DVN

DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE

-14.0%5D +6.4%

Large $48.9B GAP +33.9%

Laggard with a low forward P/E near eight, has not participated in any oil rally; stable estimate revisions

Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.

OXY

OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/

-17.5%5D +11.0%

Large $51.4B GAP +37.5% WEAK QUANTDOWNTREND

Down significantly over the past three months despite being a direct beneficiary of higher crude; revisions beginning to improve

Heavy lift — a large-cap that needs major capital to move.