Macro & economy RegionUnited States Impact Notable
US jobless claims near 57-year lows; Q3 ECI matches expectations
What happened
US weekly jobless claims remain near 57-year lows, according to Reuters. Separately, the employment cost index for Q3 rose 0.8%, matching expectations.
What it means for markets
The low claims data supports a persistently tight labor market, reducing the case for near-term Fed rate cuts. This is positive for the US dollar and negative for Treasuries, as it keeps rate expectations elevated. The in-line ECI adds no new inflationary pressure.
AssetExpectedMove since first report
US dollar UUP Tight labor market supports dollar via higher rate expectations
▲ Up
-0.21% 29.06 (2026-10-28) → 29.00 (2026-10-30)
Long Treasuries TLT Low claims reduce odds of near-term Fed rate cuts, pressuring Treasuries
▼ Down
+1.05% 80.99 (2026-10-28) → 81.84 (2026-10-30)
What to watch
- Any revision to the ECI data
- Next week's jobless claims release
Source timeline
- investingLive US employment cost index for Q3 +0.8% vs +0.8% expected
- Reuters US weekly jobless claims hover near 57-year lows