PREDICT Act

This bill amends federal ethics law to prohibit certain government officials and their families from trading on prediction markets that depend on political events. It defines who is covered, bans such trading, and sets penalties for violations.

Sec. 2, Restrictions on trading on prediction markets: This section adds a new subchapter to title 5 of the U.S. Code. It defines 'covered individual' broadly to include Members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children, the President, Vice President, political appointees, senior executive branch employees (GS-15 and above or equivalent), uniformed service members at pay grade O-7 or above, judicial officers and employees, and individuals or entities with fiduciary duties for these persons. It also defines 'independent agency' and 'political appointee' by reference to existing law, and defines 'supervising ethics office' as the relevant ethics office for each branch, with the Office of Government Ethics handling independent agencies.

Sec. 13152, Trading on prediction markets: No covered individual may enter into or offer to enter into any agreement, contract, or transaction that depends on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or extent of a specific political event. The supervising ethics office must issue interpretive guidance on undefined terms.

Sec. 13153, Penalties: A covered individual who violates the trading ban must pay a fee equal to 10% of the value of the violating agreement, contract, or transaction, and disgorge any profits from it. Disgorged profits go to the U.S. Treasury. The individual cannot pay these penalties from their congressional office allowance, campaign contributions, or any other federal government funds except their salary. Each supervising ethics office must publish on a public website a description of each fine assessed, the reason for it, and the result.