The raised guidance and strong operational momentum from new contracts (ICE, transportation, ISAP) suggest continued upside. Monitor Q2 2026 results for execution on the $715M-$725M revenue guide and potential further guidance raises. The $359M remaining buyback authorization provides downside support.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
GEO Group reported Q1 2026 revenue of $705.2M (+17% YoY) and GAAP EPS of $0.29, a 107% YoY increase. The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance: revenue to $2.95B-$3.10B, net income to $1.15-$1.25 per diluted share, and Adjusted EBITDA to $525M-$545M. The strong beat and raised guidance reflect successful execution on new contracts won in 2025, including ICE facility activations and expanded transportation services.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 revenue $705.2M vs $604.6M YoY (+17%)
- Q1 2026 GAAP EPS $0.29 vs $0.14 YoY (+107%)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA $131.4M vs $99.8M YoY (+32%)
- FY 2026 revenue guidance raised to $2.95B-$3.10B (from $2.9B-$3.1B)
- FY 2026 EPS guidance raised to $1.15-$1.25 (from $0.99-$1.07)
- FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $525M-$545M (from $490M-$510M)
- Repurchased 3.6M shares for $50M in Q1 2026
- Net leverage below 3.2x Adjusted EBITDA; total debt $1.61B
Financial Impact
Revenue beat consensus by ~2.4% ($705.2M vs $688.5M); EPS beat by ~45% ($0.29 vs $0.20 consensus). Guidance raised across all key metrics.
Risk Factors
- Nwauzor Case appeal to U.S. Supreme Court — potential material liability if ruling stands
- Dependence on federal immigration policy and government contracts
- Execution risk on facility activations and new contract ramp-up
- Higher tax rate (30% in FY 2026 guidance vs 28% previously)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-207484 |
| Document: d122560d8k.htm | 0001193125-26-207484 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-207484-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-207484 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-207484-index.html | 0001193125-26-207484 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-207484.txt | 0001193125-26-207484 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001193125-26-207484 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2026 23d ago | Court Ruling | $31.61 $31.43 | ▲ +0.57% | ▼ −0.09% | $31.36 (+0.79%) |
Aug 25, 2026 5w ago | Insider Cluster | $32.16 $30.53 | ▼ −5.07% | ▼ −4.53% | $31.36 (−2.49%) |
Aug 24, 2026 5w ago | Insider Cluster | $32.16 $30.53 | ▼ −5.07% | ▼ −4.53% | $31.36 (−2.49%) |
Aug 14, 2026 7w ago | Court Ruling | $31.22 $32.71 | ▲ +4.77% | ▲ +6.14% | $31.36 (+0.45%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | Court Ruling | $23.34 $26.68 | ▲ +14.31% | ▲ +16.86% | $31.36 (+34.36%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $22.20 $21.41 | ▼ −3.56% | ▼ −4.69% | $31.36 (+41.26%) |
Mar 19, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $16.43 $16.71 | ▲ +1.70% | ▲ +3.85% | $31.36 (+90.87%) |
Mar 5, 2026 30w ago | 8-K | $14.35 $14.55 | ▲ +1.39% | ▲ +2.92% | $31.36 (+118.54%) |
Feb 25, 2026 31w ago | Court Ruling | $14.72 $15.05 | ▼ −2.24% | ▼ −3.34% | $31.36 (−113.04%) |
US Market Status
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