8-K ·Filed Jul 30, 2026

XPO

XPO, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed2mo ago SEC0001104659-26-088440
8-K context-dependent: Items 7.01
Actionable Insight • Neutral

The presentation reinforces strong operational momentum, particularly in LTL margins. The 79.9% adjusted OR and damage claims ratio below 0.2% are record levels. Monitor the upcoming 10-Q for full financial statements and any formal guidance updates. The 2026 planning assumptions suggest capex discipline and moderate leverage.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
XPO ▼ -4.17% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -4.17% · α vs SPY -8.14% · entry $199.26 → $190.95
Next anchor: T+60d in 21d
Latest observation: T+42 +3.22% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Jul 29, 03:59 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
+0.86%
call +0.86% · α +0.15%
$200.97
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-1.46%
call -1.46% · α -5.08%
$196.35
settled 8w ago
T+20d
-4.17%
call -4.17% · α -8.14%
$190.95
settled 5w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 21d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

XPO released an investor slide deck disclosing Q2 2026 highlights: revenue of $2.36B (+13% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $434M (+27.6% YoY), and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.70 (+56% YoY). The LTL segment posted a record adjusted operating ratio of 79.9%, improving 300 bps YoY. The filing is a routine Regulation FD disclosure of an existing presentation, not a formal earnings release, but the underlying operational metrics are strong.

Key Facts

  • Q2 2026 revenue $2.36 billion, up 13% YoY
  • Adjusted EBITDA $434 million, up 27.6% YoY (excluding real estate gains: +25%)
  • Adjusted diluted EPS $1.70, up 56% YoY from $1.05
  • LTL adjusted operating ratio of 79.9%, a company record, improved 300 bps YoY
  • LTL tonnage per day up 1% YoY, accelerating each month in the quarter
  • LTL damage claims ratio below 0.2%, a company record
  • 2026 planning assumptions: gross capex $500M-$600M, interest expense $205M-$215M, diluted share count ~118M
  • Long-term targets: LTL revenue CAGR 6-8%, adjusted EBITDA CAGR 11-13%, adjusted OR improvement ≥600 bps (2021-2027)

Financial Impact

Revenue growth of $277M YoY (+13%), adjusted EBITDA growth of $94M (+27.6%), adjusted EPS growth of $0.65 (+56%)

revenueadjusted EBITDAadjusted diluted EPSadjusted operating ratio

Risk Factors

  • Freight market softness could pressure tonnage and pricing
  • Fuel surcharge revenue volatility if fuel prices decline sharply
  • Execution risk on long-term LTL margin targets amid competitive environment

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Transportation Services
Analyst Consensus
71% bullish (28 analysts)

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-088440
Document: tm2616097d4_8k.htm0001104659-26-088440
Document: 0001104659-26-088440-index-headers.html0001104659-26-088440
Document: 0001104659-26-088440-index.html0001104659-26-088440
Document: 0001104659-26-088440.txt0001104659-26-088440
19 reports for XPO
Performance horizon
50% Hit rate 3 of 6 directional calls best @ T+5▲ +6.07%Apr 30, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for XPO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 15, 2026
16d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$174.41 $179.92▲ +3.16%▲ +0.60%$186.09 (+6.70%)
Sep 9, 2026
23d ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$182.34 $175.34▼ −3.84%▼ −3.34%$186.09 (+2.06%)
Sep 3, 2026
29d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$193.10 $180.49▼ −6.53%▼ −5.32%$186.09 (−3.63%)
Aug 18, 2026
6w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$202.72 $191.93▼ −5.32%▼ −5.12%$186.09 (−8.20%)
Jul 30, 2026
9w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$199.26 $196.35▼ −1.46%▼ −5.08%$186.09 (−6.61%)
Jul 30, 2026
9w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$199.26 $196.35▼ −1.46%▼ −5.08%$186.09 (−6.61%)
Jul 30, 2026
9w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$199.26 $196.35▼ −1.46%▼ −5.08%$186.09 (−6.61%)
Jul 27, 2026
9w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$208.20 $200.97▼ −3.47%▼ −4.55%$186.09 (−10.62%)
Jun 4, 2026
17w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$218.14 $227.65▲ +4.36%▲ +6.92%$186.09 (−14.69%)
Jun 3, 2026
17w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$218.14 $227.65▲ +4.36%▲ +6.92%$186.09 (−14.69%)
Showing 10 of 19

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (64h 59m)

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