The double upgrade from a firm with a strong XOM track record adds conviction, but the below-consensus PT suggests limited near-term upside. Traders should watch for a short squeeze catalyst given the 55% short ratio, but the July 30 earnings date is the next major event.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
B of A Securities double-upgraded Exxon Mobil (XOM) from Neutral to Buy on June 16, 2026, setting a $154 price target. The firm has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,282 calls overall and a 100% record on its two prior XOM ratings, with an average return of 17.4% on those calls. The consensus on XOM is 16 Buy/Strong Buy, 14 Hold, and 1 Sell across 31 analysts, with a mean price target of $169.91 and a median of $172.50. B of A's $154 target sits 9.3% above the current price of $140.92 but below the consensus mean, indicating a relatively conservative bullish call. EPS revisions are trending higher: 10 upward revisions in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year versus 2 downward. Short interest is elevated at 55.1% of float, suggesting potential squeeze risk if the upgrade triggers buying. Institutional activity is mixed — Capital World Investors doubled its stake while Point72 and Norges Bank exited or trimmed. The next earnings report is due July 30, 2026, about six weeks away. Bottom line: the double upgrade from a historically accurate firm adds credibility, but the below-consensus PT tempers the bullish signal.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
The consensus across 31 analysts is 6 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell — 52% bullish, 45% neutral, 3% bearish. The direction is moderately bullish, and B of A's upgrade aligns with the majority view.
Current price: $140.92. Mean target: $169.91 (20.6% upside). Median: $172.50. High: $185. Low: $130. B of A's $154 target is 9.3% above current price but 9.4% below the mean, making it one of the more conservative bullish targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | B of A Securities | upgrade | Buy | $154.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $175.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $182.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Bernstein | maintain | Outperform | $182.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Sector Perform | $180.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $174.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Scotiabank | maintain | Sector Outperform | $163.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wolfe Research | downgrade | Peer Perform | — |
| 2026-04-17 | BNP Paribas | upgrade | Neutral | $165.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $171.00 |
In the last 30 days, XOM has seen 1 upgrade (B of A) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive: current fiscal year estimates saw 10 upward revisions vs 2 downward in 30 days; next quarter saw 4 up vs 3 down; next fiscal year saw 16 up vs 4 down. Estimates are being revised higher across all periods.
Firm Track Record — B of A Securities
B of A Securities accuracy: 54% on 3282 calls | avg return: 5.1%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 100% | 2/2 | 4.7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 100% | 2/2 | 17.4% | top tier |
| HSBC | 100% | 2/2 | 3.9% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 86% | 6/7 | 7.8% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 75% | 6/8 | 5.8% | top tier |
| Barclays | 71% | 5/7 | 0.7% | top tier |
| UBS | 70% | 7/10 | 3.6% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 63% | 5/8 | 4.3% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 50% | 3/6 | 4.9% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 2/4 | 5.7% | below average |
B of A Securities has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,282 scored calls with a 5.1% average return. On XOM specifically, it is 2-for-2 (100%) with a 17.4% average return, ranking as top tier among covering firms. Best-performing firms on XOM by accuracy: JP Morgan (100% on 2), B of A (100% on 2), HSBC (100% on 2). Worst: Truist Securities (20% on 5), TD Cowen (40% on 5), RBC Capital (43% on 7).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $11.30 | $7.91 — $16.37 | $405.7B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.49 | $2.45 — $4.70 | $101.6B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1y | $10.64 | $7.55 — $14.49 | $382.6B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $3.73 | $2.26 — $5.78 | $104.2B | ↑3 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades or congressional trades reported. Institutional activity is mixed: Capital World Investors doubled its position (+117.9%), while Norges Bank exited, Point72 nearly exited (-95.2%), and Capital International Investors trimmed (-33.5%). Short interest is 55.1% of float, a high level that could amplify any upward move. The bullish analyst signal converges with rising EPS estimates but diverges from the bearish short interest and some institutional exits.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 1, 2026 1d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $163.82 $164.01 | ▼ −0.12% | ▲ +0.62% | $164.01 (−0.12%) |
Aug 28, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $156.71 $160.95 | ▲ +2.71% | ▲ +3.00% | $164.01 (+4.66%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $155.44 $155.05 | ▼ −0.25% | ▼ −1.66% | $164.01 (+5.51%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $153.04 $156.75 | ▼ −2.42% | ▼ −3.96% | $164.01 (−7.17%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Court Ruling | $156.89 $156.94 | ▲ +0.03% | ▼ −0.07% | $164.01 (+4.54%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | Court Ruling | $136.72 $136.28 | ▼ −0.32% | ▼ −0.19% | $164.01 (+19.96%) |
Jun 23, 2026 14w ago | Court Ruling | $139.73 $136.90 | ▼ −2.03% | ▼ −1.98% | $164.01 (+17.38%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | DEFA14A | $148.00 $146.93 | ▼ −0.72% | ▼ −1.27% | $164.01 (+10.82%) |
May 15, 2026 20w ago | DEFA14A | $157.91 $160.46 | ▲ +1.62% | ▲ +1.68% | $164.01 (+3.87%) |
US Market Status
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