The combination of raised guidance, major new PPAs with tech giants, and the Cogentrix acquisition suggests strong growth momentum. Traders should monitor the Cogentrix deal closing and 2026 execution against the raised guidance, as successful integration could drive further upside.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Vistra reported full-year 2025 net income of $944 million, down from $2.8 billion in 2024 due to an $808 million unrealized hedge loss, but ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA rose 4.8% to $5.9 billion. The company raised 2026 guidance with EBITDA expected between $6.8-$7.6 billion and free cash flow of $3.9-$4.7 billion, while announcing a $5.5 billion acquisition of Cogentrix Energy and securing major nuclear power purchase agreements with AWS and Meta.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Full-year 2025 net income was $944 million, down from $2.812 billion in 2024, primarily due to an $808 million unrealized loss from hedges
- Ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA increased 4.8% year-over-year to $5.912 billion
- 2026 guidance raised with ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA expected between $6.8-$7.6 billion and adjusted FCFbG of $3.925-$4.725 billion
- Announced plans to acquire Cogentrix Energy for approximately 5,500 MW of natural gas-fueled generation capacity, expected to close mid-to-late 2026
- Secured industry-leading power purchase agreements for ~3,800 MW of nuclear power with AWS and Meta
- Cash flow from operations was $4.07 billion in 2025
Financial Impact
2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8-$7.6 billion represents 15-29% growth over 2025's $5.912 billion, with free cash flow guidance of $3.925-$4.725 billion up 9-32% from 2025's $3.592 billion
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | $1.6B | +10.9% |
| Texas | $1.8B | -9.7% |
| East | $2.3B | +13.2% |
| West | $244.0M | +8.4% |
Risk Factors
- The Cogentrix acquisition may face regulatory hurdles or integration challenges
- Commodity price volatility could impact future hedge valuations
- Execution risk on the raised 2026 guidance
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-073364 |
| Document: d21122d8k.htm | 0001193125-26-073364 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-073364-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-073364 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-073364-index.html | 0001193125-26-073364 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-073364.txt | 0001193125-26-073364 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 22d ago | Press Release | $148.38 $140.67 | ▼ −5.20% | ▼ −4.97% | $140.02 (−5.63%) |
Sep 10, 2026 22d ago | Insider Cluster | $147.05 $143.56 | ▼ −2.37% | ▼ −1.87% | $140.02 (−4.78%) |
Sep 2, 2026 4w ago | Insider Buy | $143.46 $147.05 | ▲ +2.50% | ▲ +3.46% | $140.02 (−2.40%) |
Aug 24, 2026 5w ago | Insider Buy | $135.66 $137.37 | ▲ +1.26% | ▲ +0.79% | $140.02 (+3.21%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $140.01 $148.13 | ▲ +5.80% | ▲ +5.40% | $140.02 (+0.01%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $152.56 $168.98 | ▲ +10.76% | ▲ +12.43% | $140.02 (−8.22%) |
Jul 6, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $157.22 $158.86 | ▲ +1.04% | ▲ +0.55% | $140.02 (−10.94%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $153.16 $155.73 | ▲ +1.68% | ▲ +1.42% | $140.02 (−8.58%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $167.26 $163.49 | ▼ −2.25% | ▼ −0.19% | $140.02 (−16.29%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $163.75 $167.77 | ▲ +2.46% | ▲ +4.12% | $140.02 (−14.49%) |
US Market Status
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