The stock may trade lower on margin compression and FCF decline despite an EPS beat. Monitor Q2 for further margin trends and the outcome of Commercial Services customer renewal negotiations. The reaffirmed guidance cap downside, but the deceleration from prior quarters is a red flag.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Verra Mobility reported Q1 2026 revenue of $223.6M (+0.1% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.25, beating consensus of $0.22 by 13.6%. However, GAAP net income fell 17% to $26.7M, adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 38% from 43%, and free cash flow declined 77% to $9.6M. Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, providing some stability against deteriorating profitability trends.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 revenue $223.6M vs $223.3M YoY (+0.1%)
- Adjusted EPS $0.25 beat consensus $0.22 by $0.03 (+13.6%)
- GAAP net income $26.7M ($0.17 diluted) vs $32.3M ($0.20) YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA $86.0M vs $95.4M YoY; margin 38% vs 43%
- Free cash flow $9.6M vs $41.7M YoY, driven by higher capex and working capital uses
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: revenue $1.02B-$1.03B, Adj EBITDA $405M-$415M, Adj EPS $1.32-$1.38
Financial Impact
Q1 revenue essentially flat, net income down 17%, FCF down 77% — material profitability deterioration partially offset by an EPS beat
Risk Factors
- NYSE: VRRM faces NYCDOT pricing changes and camera installation cost overruns
- Commercial Services segment revenue declined 4% due to fleet management customer churn
- Transformation expenses ($4.2M) and higher capex could pressure near-term cash flows
- Net leverage increased to 2.5x from 2.3x, reducing financial flexibility
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-209031 |
| Document: vrrm-20260506.htm | 0001193125-26-209031 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-209031-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-209031 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-209031-index.html | 0001193125-26-209031 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-209031.txt | 0001193125-26-209031 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001193125-26-209031 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $4.41 $4.20 | ▼ −4.76% | ▼ −5.03% | $2.81 (−36.28%) |
Jul 27, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $4.18 $5.61 | ▼ −34.21% | ▼ −31.94% | $2.81 (+32.78%) |
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $4.05 $5.14 | ▲ +26.91% | ▲ +26.54% | $2.81 (−30.62%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $4.23 $4.34 | ▼ −2.72% | ▼ −1.86% | $2.81 (+33.49%) |
Jun 8, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $4.18 $4.98 | ▲ +19.14% | ▲ +17.03% | $2.81 (−32.78%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $4.16 $4.61 | ▼ −10.82% | ▼ −13.78% | $2.81 (+32.45%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $14.63 $13.43 | ▼ −8.20% | ▼ −9.71% | $2.81 (−80.79%) |
Feb 24, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $16.18 $16.50 | ▲ +1.98% | ▲ +3.08% | $2.81 (−82.63%) |
US Market Status
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