The guidance raise to high-single-digit EPS growth confirms operating momentum, but fuel cost headwinds and the pending NSC merger approval process introduce uncertainty. Monitor the July 23 earnings call for detail on intermodal volume recovery (up 26% in Q2) and OR trajectory. The stock should see positive near-term momentum but consolidate as the market prices in regulatory risk.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Union Pacific Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.41 beat consensus by 5.6% and operating revenue of $6.86B beat by 2.3%. Management raised full-year EPS growth guidance to high-single digit from mid-single digit, signaling accelerating momentum despite higher fuel costs weighing on the operating ratio. Record freight revenue, strong free cash flow, and improving service metrics reinforce the positive outlook.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Adjusted diluted EPS $3.41 vs consensus $3.23 (+5.6%), GAAP EPS $3.36 (+7% YoY)
- Operating revenue $6.86B, up 12% YoY; freight revenue up 12% (+4% ex-fuel surcharge)
- 2026 EPS growth guidance raised to high-single digit from mid-single digit
- Operating ratio 59.7% (adjusted 59.2%), worsened 70 bps YoY due to fuel (120 bps headwind)
- Free cash flow YTD $1.81B, up 64% vs $1.10B in prior year
- Debt/net income improved to 4.1x from 4.5x; adjusted debt/EBITDA stable at 2.5x
Financial Impact
EPS beat of ~$0.18 on consensus $3.23; revenue beat of ~$154M on $6.71B consensus
Risk Factors
- Fuel price volatility (average price up 60% YoY in Q2, 120 bps OR impact)
- Pending NSC merger: Surface Transportation Board approval timeline and potential conditions
- Intermodal volumes still recovering; premium segment down 5% in carloads YoY
- Operating ratio deterioration (reported 59.7% vs 59.0% prior year) despite record revenue
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000100885-26-000249 |
| Document: unp-20260723.htm | 0000100885-26-000249 |
| Document: 0000100885-26-000249-index-headers.html | 0000100885-26-000249 |
| Document: 0000100885-26-000249-index.html | 0000100885-26-000249 |
| Document: 0000100885-26-000249.txt | 0000100885-26-000249 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000100885-26-000249 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $304.33 $303.97 | ▼ −0.12% | ▼ −3.43% | $277.42 (−8.84%) |
Apr 23, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $271.10 $265.80 | ▼ −1.95% | ▼ −6.59% | $277.42 (+2.33%) |
US Market Status
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