The strong Q2 beat and raised guidance to the upper end of the 2026 comparable EBITDA range signal accelerating earnings momentum. Traders should watch for continued execution on the ~$22B secured project backlog and the pace of new project sanctions, which support the long-term growth narrative. The stock may re-rate higher as the market prices in the improved outlook.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
TC Energy reported strong Q2 2026 results with comparable EBITDA of $2.9B (+12% YoY) and comparable EPS of $0.94 (+15% YoY), driven by broad-based strength across U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines and Bruce Power. Management guided to the upper end of the 2026 comparable EBITDA range ($11.6-$11.8B) and sanctioned ~$0.7B in new low-risk expansion projects. The filing is a clean beat with raised guidance, supporting a bullish read on the stock.
Key Facts
- Comparable EBITDA from continuing operations was $2.948B in Q2 2026, up 12% from $2.625B in Q2 2025.
- Comparable earnings per common share from continuing operations was $0.94 in Q2 2026, up from $0.82 in Q2 2025.
- Net income attributable to common shares from continuing operations was $987M ($0.95/share) in Q2 2026 vs $862M ($0.83/share) in Q2 2025.
- Management expects 2026 comparable EBITDA to be at the upper end of the $11.6B to $11.8B range.
- U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines comparable EBITDA rose US$94M to US$881M in Q2 2026, driven by higher rates and contract sales.
- Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines comparable EBITDA rose US$66M to US$296M in Q2 2026, driven by the Southeast Gateway pipeline.
- Bruce Power comparable EBITDA rose $52M to $285M in Q2 2026, with Unit 3 MCR completed ahead of schedule.
- ~$0.7B of new growth projects sanctioned in Q2 2026, including Central Virginia Capacity, Clark, and NGTL expansion.
- Quarterly dividend declared at $0.8775 per common share, up from $0.85 in Q2 2025.
- Capital expenditures were $1.123B in Q2 2026, down from $1.379B in Q2 2025.
Financial Impact
Comparable EBITDA +12% YoY to $2.9B; comparable EPS +15% to $0.94; guidance raised to upper end of $11.6-$11.8B range
Risk Factors
- Execution risk on the $22B capital program, particularly on large projects like the Appalachia Supply project ($1.5B).
- Foreign exchange exposure: a weaker U.S. dollar negatively impacts Canadian-dollar reported earnings from U.S. operations.
- Regulatory risk: pending rate case settlements (Great Lakes, GTN) and potential adverse outcomes could pressure future earnings.
- Counterparty credit risk: ~33% of gross exposure is concentrated with CFE in Mexico; ECL provisions on TGNH leases could fluctuate.
- Interest rate risk: rising rates increase interest expense on floating-rate debt and could pressure the balance sheet leverage target of 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001232384-26-000045 |
| Document: trp-06302026xmda.htm | 0001232384-26-000045 |
| Document: trp-06302026xexx991parta.htm | 0001232384-26-000045 |
| Document: trp-06302026x6xk.htm | 0001232384-26-000045 |
| Document: trp-06302026xexx312tcetcpl.htm | 0001232384-26-000045 |
| Document: trp-06302026xexx311tcetcpl.htm | 0001232384-26-000045 |
| Document: trp-06302026xexx321tcetcpl.htm | 0001232384-26-000045 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $68.09 $62.05 | ▼ −8.87% | ▼ −12.84% | $58.27 (−14.42%) |
Jul 9, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $67.33 $63.23 | ▼ −6.09% | ▼ −8.51% | $58.27 (−13.46%) |
May 7, 2026 21w ago | Press Release | $64.75 $68.68 | ▲ +6.07% | ▲ +6.05% | $58.27 (−10.01%) |
Apr 10, 2026 24w ago | Press Release | $62.48 $65.51 | ▲ +4.85% | ▼ −2.88% | $58.27 (−6.74%) |
US Market Status
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