The convergence of insider selling, EPS downgrades, and a contrarian double-downgrade from Jefferies creates a bearish signal worth respecting. Traders should consider reducing long exposure or initiating bearish positions, with a near-term downside target toward the $125 low-end consensus.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Jefferies double-downgraded TJX from Buy to Hold on August 26, slashing its price target to $145 from $180, a 19.4% cut. The call is contrarian to a heavily bullish consensus — 22 of 26 analysts rate TJX Buy or Strong Buy, with only 3 Holds and 1 Sell. Jefferies’ new $145 target sits well below the $170.4 mean and $175 median, and is the second-lowest among 20 analysts. The firm has a 53% accuracy rate on 2,281 calls with a 3.9% average return, placing it below the top-tier firms covering TJX (e.g., Barclays 100% on 7 calls, Bernstein 100% on 3 calls). The downgrade follows two other recent downgrades (Citigroup to Neutral on Aug 20, Gordon Haskett to Accumulate on Aug 20), creating a bearish momentum cluster. EPS revisions have turned negative — 5 downward revisions in the last 30 days for the current and next quarter — while full-year estimates saw 1 upward revision. Insider selling is notable: Carol Meyrowitz sold $9.1M on June 9, and Ernie Herrman sold $4.4M on June 4, aligning with the bearish analyst signal. Short interest is elevated at 58.9% of off-exchange volume, suggesting heavy bearish positioning. Bottom line: The Jefferies downgrade is a contrarian, high-conviction call from a mid-tier firm, but the convergence of insider selling, EPS downgrades, and recent peer downgrades amplifies the bearish signal.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 11 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell (26 analysts total). 85% of analysts rate TJX Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus direction is strongly bullish, making Jefferies' downgrade a clear outlier.
Current price: $133.91. Mean target: $170.40 (27.2% upside). Median: $175. High: $198 (UBS). Low: $125. Jefferies' $145 target is 14.9% below the mean and 17.1% below the median, ranking as the second-lowest target among 20 analysts.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Jefferies | downgrade | Hold | $145.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Citigroup | downgrade | Neutral | $154.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $178.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $198.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | BTIG | reiterate | Buy | $190.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $188.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $140.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $173.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Gordon Haskett | downgrade | Accumulate | — |
| 2026-05-21 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $197.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 3 downgrades (Jefferies, Citigroup, Gordon Haskett). EPS revision trend is negative: 5 downward revisions in the last 30 days for the current quarter (0q) and next quarter (+1q), while full-year estimates (0y, +1y) saw 1 upward revision each. Estimates are being revised lower for near-term quarters.
Firm Track Record — Jefferies
Jefferies accuracy: 53% on 2281 calls | avg return: 3.9%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loop Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 4.2% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 100% | 6/6 | 5% | top tier |
| BTIG | 100% | 2/2 | 7.5% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 6.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 100% | 7/7 | 8.2% | top tier |
| Bernstein | 100% | 3/3 | 12.4% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 100% | 4/4 | 7.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 100% | 5/5 | 5.6% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 2/2 | 11.5% | top tier |
| UBS | 100% | 8/8 | 9.4% | top tier |
Jefferies has a 53% accuracy rate on 2,281 scored calls with a 3.9% average return. This is below the top-tier firms covering TJX, such as Barclays (100% on 7 calls, 8.2% avg return), Bernstein (100% on 3 calls, 12.4% avg return), and UBS (100% on 8 calls, 9.4% avg return). Jefferies' track record is average, reducing the weight of this contrarian call.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.36 | $1.32 — $1.41 | $15.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.49 | $1.43 — $1.56 | $18.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $5.32 | $5.17 — $5.45 | $64.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $5.78 | $5.60 — $6.05 | $68.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is pronounced: Carol Meyrowitz sold $9.1M on June 9, Ernie Herrman sold $4.4M on June 4 and $1.6M on June 5, and John Klinger sold $1.0M on June 5. This aligns with the bearish analyst signal. Congressional activity: Rep. Ro Khanna sold $15k-$50k on July 7 (minor). Institutional changes show large buys: Magnetar Financial doubled its position (+141.4%), ABN AMRO doubled (+314.2%), and Vanguard added (+28.7%). Short interest is 58.9% of off-exchange volume, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The insider selling and short interest converge with the analyst downgrade, while institutional buying diverges.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $136.73 $131.63 | ▲ +3.73% | ▲ +3.87% | $132.61 (+3.01%) |
Aug 20, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $140.69 $126.55 | ▲ +10.05% | ▲ +10.05% | $132.61 (+5.74%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $144.50 $126.55 | ▼ −12.42% | ▼ −10.47% | $132.61 (−8.23%) |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $168.34 $150.90 | ▼ −10.36% | ▼ −12.25% | $132.61 (−21.22%) |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $159.75 $151.31 | ▼ −5.28% | ▼ −6.91% | $132.61 (−16.99%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | Court Ruling | $152.71 $151.23 | ▼ −0.97% | ▲ +1.35% | $132.61 (−13.16%) |
May 29, 2026 17w ago | S-3ASR | $154.65 $155.43 | ▲ +0.51% | ▲ +4.14% | $132.61 (−14.25%) |
May 20, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $159.22 $164.13 | ▲ +3.09% | ▲ +3.13% | $132.61 (−16.71%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | DEFA14A | $156.70 $154.65 | ▼ −1.31% | ▼ −6.53% | $132.61 (−15.37%) |
Feb 25, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $155.33 $159.69 | ▲ +2.81% | ▲ +8.04% | $132.61 (−14.62%) |
US Market Status
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