8-K ·Filed Aug 3, 2026

SUPN

SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonmonths Processed2mo ago SEC0001104659-26-089524
8-K context-dependent: Items 8.01
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

Traders should monitor the deal spread between Supernus and Indivior shares as the market prices in completion risk. Key catalysts include shareholder votes and regulatory approvals in the coming months. The fixed exchange ratio creates a pure merger-arb opportunity.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
SUPN ▼ -3.89% at T+20d
LONG call ✗ call lost -3.89% · α vs SPY -5.13% · entry $46.00 → $44.21
Next anchor: T+60d in 25d
Latest observation: T+39 +9.60% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Aug 3, 07:17 AM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
-5.98%
call -5.98% · α -7.78%
$43.25
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+2.33%
call +2.33% · α +0.30%
$47.07
settled 8w ago
T+20d
-3.89%
call -3.89% · α -5.13%
$44.21
settled 5w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 25d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Supernus Pharmaceuticals and Indivior announced a merger of equals in a 100% tax-free stock-for-stock transaction. Supernus shareholders will receive 1.5401 Indivior shares per Supernus share, and Indivior will distribute a $1B dividend to its pre-closing stockholders. The combined company is expected to have pro forma net revenue of $2.162B and $888M in adjusted EBITDA (including $125M in cost synergies), with a target close in Q4 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Key Facts

  • Supernus shareholders receive 1.5401 Indivior shares per Supernus share
  • Indivior to declare $1B dividend to pre-closing stockholders before close
  • Post-close ownership: 56.5% Indivior, 43.5% Supernus
  • Pro forma combined net revenue LTM 6/30/26: $2,162 million
  • Pro forma adjusted EBITDA including $125M synergies: $888 million (41% margin)
  • Expected annual cost synergies of at least $125 million
  • Target close Q4 2026

Financial Impact

Pro forma combined net revenue $2,162M and Adjusted EBITDA $888M, with $125M in expected annual cost synergies; net leverage <1x

revenueebitdasynergiesownership

Risk Factors

  • Failure to obtain shareholder or regulatory approvals
  • Integration challenges and cost synergy realization
  • Market risk from fixed exchange ratio
  • Potential competing bids or termination fees

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
83% bullish (12 analysts)

Investment Themes

Biotech & Drug Discovery

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-089524
Document: tm2622009d4_ex99-1.htm0001104659-26-089524
Document: 0001104659-26-089524-index-headers.html0001104659-26-089524
Document: 0001104659-26-089524-index.html0001104659-26-089524
Document: 0001104659-26-089524.txt0001104659-26-089524
20 reports for SUPN
Performance horizon
71% Hit rate 5 of 7 directional calls best @ T+1▲ +8.46%Aug 3, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for SUPN — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 11, 2026
20d ago
DEFM14A
MIXED ★ 7/10
$41.49 $42.78▲ +3.11%▲ +3.00%$42.60 (+2.68%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
DEFA14A / 425
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$43.25 $46.88▲ +8.39%▲ +8.49%$42.60 (−1.50%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$43.25 $46.88▲ +8.39%▲ +8.49%$42.60 (−1.50%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
DEFA14A / 425
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$46.00 $47.07▲ +2.33%▲ +0.30%$42.60 (−7.39%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$46.00 $47.07▲ +2.33%▲ +0.30%$42.60 (−7.39%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 7/10
$46.00 $47.07▲ +2.33%▲ +0.30%$42.60 (−7.39%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
DEFA14A / 425 / 8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$46.00 $47.07▲ +2.33%▲ +0.30%$42.60 (−7.39%)
Jul 22, 2026
10w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$47.19 $45.61▼ −3.35%▼ −3.82%$42.60 (−9.73%)
Jul 22, 2026
10w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$47.19 $45.61▼ −3.35%▼ −3.82%$42.60 (−9.73%)
Jul 20, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$47.42 $46.20▼ −2.57%▼ −2.15%$42.60 (−10.16%)
Showing 10 of 20

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