Monitor near-term price action for the selling imbalance to be absorbed. The strong insider buying ($5.8M) and conviction accumulation by quant/asset managers (RenTech, Point72, Caisse, Prudential) suggest a floor near current levels. The selling by mega-passive funds (Schwab, Norges) may reflect sector rotation rather than company-specific weakness.
Executive Summary
A mixed institutional cluster in Radian Group (RDN) during 2026-Q1 shows 17 buyers accumulating $58.3M in new position value, heavily weighted by Caisse De Depot ($26.0M ADD) and Prudential Financial ($8.8M DOUBLED), while 15 sellers reduced holdings by $393.5M, led by Schwab ($149.9M TRIM) and exits from Norges Bank ($77.4M) and Capital World Investors ($56.7M). The outsized selling by mega-passive and large active funds contrasts with strong conviction buying by quant and asset managers, and is corroborated by $5.8M in open-market C-suite insider purchases, suggesting a divergence between smart-money accumulation and broad rotation out of insurance/surety exposure.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: -$335.2M
▲ Buyers (17)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caisse De Depot Et Placement D | DOUBLED | +162.2% | $44.5M | $26.0M |
| Prudential Financial | DOUBLED | +154% | $15.4M | $8.8M |
| Franklin Resources | DOUBLED | +298.1% | $13.8M | $10.1M |
| Point72 | ADD | +79.8% | $17.2M | $6.8M |
| RenTech | DOUBLED | +180.9% | $4.4M | $2.7M |
▼ Sellers (15)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schwab | TRIM | -67.2% | $214.5M | -$149.9M |
| Norges Bank | EXIT | -100% | $77.4M | -$77.4M |
| Capital World Investors | EXIT | -100% | $56.7M | -$56.7M |
| Balyasny Asset Management | TRIM | -62.2% | $78.8M | -$51.4M |
| First Trust Advisors | TRIM | -37.3% | $50.3M | -$21.3M |
Key Facts
- 17 buyers aggregated $122.1M in current holdings, adding $58.3M net, led by Caisse De Depot ($18.5M→$44.5M) and Prudential Financial ($6.6M→$15.4M)
- 15 sellers reduced holdings by $393.5M, led by Schwab TRIM ($214.5M→$64.6M) and full exits from Norges Bank ($77.4M) and Capital World Investors ($56.7M)
- Insider confluence score 76/100 with $5.8M of open-market C-suite buying corroborates the institutional accumulation thesis
- Radian Group has a $4.7B market cap in the surety insurance sector with 73% of analysts rating it Strong Buy or Buy
Financial Impact
17 institutional buyers added $58.3M in net new position value while 15 sellers reduced holdings by $393.5M, reflecting a net selling imbalance of approximately $335.2M
Risk Factors
- Selling by Schwab ($149.9M) and exits by two large active funds ($134.1M combined) may reflect fundamental concerns about the surety insurance cycle
- 13F data is 45+ days stale — the cluster may have already been partially or fully unwound
- Mega-passive selling could be index rebalancing unrelated to company fundamentals
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-RDN-2026-Q1 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 7, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $36.50 $36.05 | ▼ −1.23% | ▼ −0.32% | — |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $36.26 $36.81 | ▼ −1.52% | ▼ −0.92% | — |
Jun 23, 2026 14w ago | Institutional Cluster | $35.61 $38.87 | ▲ +9.15% | ▲ +7.99% | — |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.56 $38.19 | ▲ +13.80% | ▲ +12.16% | — |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.67 $37.94 | ▲ +12.68% | ▲ +13.68% | — |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.67 $37.94 | ▲ +12.68% | ▲ +13.68% | — |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.79 $37.72 | ▲ +11.63% | ▲ +13.20% | — |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.89 $37.81 | ▲ +11.56% | ▲ +13.35% | — |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $35.04 $37.00 | ▲ +5.58% | ▲ +7.48% | — |
May 21, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $36.06 $35.28 | ▼ −2.15% | ▼ −0.74% | — |
US Market Status
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