The CEO-elect's $1.69M open-market buy post-earnings dip is a high-conviction signal. Prior RDN insider clusters have predicted strong positive returns (avg +12% T+20 alpha). Monitor for follow-on buying from other C-suite executives in the next 10 days to confirm the signal. The director sales are routine and can be ignored.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
A $1.93M insider cluster at Radian Group shows a mixed pattern: CEO-elect Weinbach made a $1.69M open-market purchase just after the stock sold off on a Q2 earnings miss, while four directors sold small routine amounts totaling $243K. The CEO-elect's buy is a strong conviction signal that may be catalyzed by the post-earnings dip, while the director sales are immaterial at 0.005% of market cap.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- CEO-elect Michael S. Weinbach bought 49,500 shares for $1.69M in an open-market purchase on June 2, 2026
- Four directors sold small amounts totaling $243K, all under $130K each and collectively 0.005% of $4.8B market cap
- Cluster follows a bearish Q2 2026 earnings release (Aug 6) where adjusted EPS of $1.14 missed consensus of $1.35 by 15.7%
- Total insider cluster value is $1.93M, but net economic signal is $1.69M from CEO-elect's buy alone
- Historical calibration shows 100% win rate (10/10) on prior RDN calls with avg T+20 alpha of +11.93%
Financial Impact
CEO-elect purchase of $1.69M represents ~0.035% of market cap; director sales of $243K are trivial at 0.005%
Risk Factors
- Stock may continue to suffer from the Q2 EPS miss and acquisition integration costs before any catalyst materializes
- CEO-elect's purchase could be partially offset by planned open-market selling to cover tax liabilities (not indicated here but common)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | cluster-RDN-1786144568145 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 7, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $36.50 $36.05 | ▼ −1.23% | ▼ −0.32% | $32.43 (−11.16%) |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $36.26 $36.81 | ▼ −1.52% | ▼ −0.92% | $32.43 (+10.57%) |
Jun 23, 2026 14w ago | Institutional Cluster | $35.61 $38.87 | ▲ +9.15% | ▲ +7.99% | $32.43 (−8.94%) |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.56 $38.19 | ▲ +13.80% | ▲ +12.16% | $32.43 (−3.37%) |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.67 $37.94 | ▲ +12.68% | ▲ +13.68% | $32.43 (−3.69%) |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.67 $37.94 | ▲ +12.68% | ▲ +13.68% | $32.43 (−3.69%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.79 $37.72 | ▲ +11.63% | ▲ +13.20% | $32.43 (−4.03%) |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $33.89 $37.81 | ▲ +11.56% | ▲ +13.35% | $32.43 (−4.32%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $35.04 $37.00 | ▲ +5.58% | ▲ +7.48% | $32.43 (−7.47%) |
May 21, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $36.06 $35.28 | ▼ −2.15% | ▼ −0.74% | $32.43 (−10.06%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access