8-K ·Filed Aug 6, 2026

RDN

RADIAN GROUP INC
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizondays Processed1mo ago SEC0001193125-26-336793
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The significant EPS miss and elevated Specialty segment losses are likely to pressure the stock near-term. Monitor the Q3 2026 earnings call for updates on Middle East conflict loss development and the trajectory of Specialty segment combined ratio improvement.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
RDN ▲ +1.52% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -1.52% · α vs SPY -0.92% · entry $36.26 → $36.81
Next anchor: T+60d in 28d
Latest observation: T+37 +8.32% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Aug 6, 2026
via day open
T+1d
+1.79%
call -1.79% · α -1.18%
$36.91
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+1.68%
call -1.68% · α -0.47%
$36.87
settled 7w ago
T+20d
+1.52%
call -1.52% · α -0.92%
$36.81
settled 29d ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 28d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Radian Group reported Q2 2026 adjusted diluted net operating income per share of $1.14, missing the consensus estimate of $1.35 by 15.7%. Total revenue surged 93% YoY to $575M, driven by the first full quarter of the Inigo acquisition, but GAAP net income from continuing operations fell to $118M from $154M a year ago due to acquisition-related costs and a $169M provision for losses in the Specialty segment tied to the Middle East conflict. The miss on the Street-quoted EPS metric overshadows the top-line growth, making this a bearish report for the stock despite the transformation narrative.

Key Financial Metrics

EPS
$1.14
est $1.35 · -15.6%
Revenue
$575.0M
est $496.8M · +15.7% · +92.6% YoY
Rating
miss

Key Facts

  • Adjusted diluted net operating income per share of $1.14 missed consensus of $1.35 (-15.7%).
  • Total revenue grew 93% YoY to $575M, but GAAP net income from continuing operations fell 23.5% to $118M.
  • Specialty segment provision for losses was $169M, including reserves for the Middle East conflict, driving a 97.7% combined ratio.
  • Mortgage segment adjusted pretax operating income declined to $208M from $216M YoY, with a combined ratio of 35.8%.
  • Company repurchased $76M in shares and paid $37M in dividends during the quarter.
  • Book value per share grew 8.5% YoY to $36.00.

Financial Impact

Adjusted EPS missed consensus by $0.21 (-15.7%), while GAAP net income from continuing operations declined $36M (-23.5%) YoY.

epsnet incomeprovision for losses

Risk Factors

  • Further adverse development on Middle East conflict-related claims in the Specialty segment.
  • Integration risks and higher-than-expected expenses from the Inigo acquisition.
  • Potential for a softening premium rate environment in the Specialty insurance market.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Surety Insurance
Analyst Consensus
80% bullish (10 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-336793
Document: 0001193125-26-336793-index.html0001193125-26-336793
Document: 0001193125-26-336793.txt0001193125-26-336793
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001193125-26-336793
13 reports for RDN
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 4 of 4 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +13.80%Jun 5, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for RDN — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 7, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$36.50 $36.05▼ −1.23%▼ −0.32%$32.21 (−11.75%)
Aug 6, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$36.26 $36.81▼ −1.52%▼ −0.92%$32.21 (+11.17%)
Jun 23, 2026
14w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 5/10
$35.61 $38.87▲ +9.15%▲ +7.99%$32.21 (−9.55%)
Jun 5, 2026
16w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$33.56 $38.19▲ +13.80%▲ +12.16%$32.21 (−4.02%)
Jun 2, 2026
17w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$33.67 $37.94▲ +12.68%▲ +13.68%$32.21 (−4.34%)
Jun 2, 2026
17w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$33.67 $37.94▲ +12.68%▲ +13.68%$32.21 (−4.34%)
Jun 1, 2026
17w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$33.79 $37.72▲ +11.63%▲ +13.20%$32.21 (−4.68%)
May 29, 2026
18w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$33.89 $37.81▲ +11.56%▲ +13.35%$32.21 (−4.96%)
May 26, 2026
18w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$35.04 $37.00▲ +5.58%▲ +7.48%$32.21 (−8.09%)
May 21, 2026
19w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$36.06 $35.28▼ −2.15%▼ −0.74%$32.21 (−10.67%)
Showing 10 of 13

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