Price Chart

Executive Summary

BMO Capital initiated coverage on NVDA at Outperform with a $340 price target, implying 56.8% upside from the current $216.85. The firm has a 53% accuracy rate on 1,841 calls and an average return of 2.3%. Consensus is heavily bullish: 64 of 68 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell. The mean target is $304.12, median $300, high $500, low $180. BMO's $340 PT sits above the mean and median, in the 75th percentile of targets. Momentum is positive — 1 upgrade, 0 downgrades in the past 30 days, and EPS revisions are trending higher across all periods. Insider selling is heavy, with director Mark A. Stevens selling over $295M in June, but this is partially offset by institutional buying from funds like Sanders Capital (doubled position, +216.6%). Congressional trades are mixed with small buys and sells. The next earnings date is August 26, 2026, just 5 days away, adding a timing catalyst. Bottom line: BMO's initiation aligns with the bullish consensus but at a premium target, and the near-term earnings event could drive price action.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 23 Strong Buy, 41 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 94.1% Buy/Strong Buy. 68 analysts cover the stock. The direction is firmly positive, with only one sell-side dissenter.

Mean target $304.12, median $300, high $500, low $180. Current price $216.85 implies 40.3% upside to the mean. BMO's $340 PT is above the mean and median, ranking in the top quartile of targets. The high target of $500 (from Tigress Financial) is 130.6% above current price.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (BMO initiation), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive across all periods: next quarter EPS revised up from $2.341 to $2.363 (30d), current year from $8.951 to $9.005, next year from $12.789 to $12.999. Revisions up 7d: 1-2 per period, revisions down 7d: 0. Estimates are being revised higher consistently.

Firm Track Record — BMO Capital

BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1841 calls | avg return: 2.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

BMO Capital has a 53% accuracy rate on 1,841 calls with an average return of 2.3%. This is below the top-tier firms covering NVDA: Piper Sandler (86% on 7 calls, avg return 20.3%), Raymond James (83% on 6 calls, 27.8%), and Evercore ISI (80% on 10 calls, 14.7%). BMO's accuracy is near the median among the 15 firms listed. Best performing: Piper Sandler (86%, 20.3% avg return). Worst performing: JP Morgan (67% on 6 calls, 7.3% avg return).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Aug 26, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: heavy selling by director Mark A. Stevens ($295M+ in June) and EVP Neal Stephen C ($3.3M in June) — a bearish signal. However, institutional activity is mixed: Sanders Capital doubled its position (+216.6%, $4.5B), Flossbach von Storch doubled (+506.4%, $393M), while ABN AMRO trimmed (-38.3%, $634M) and JENSEN trimmed (-26.6%, $239M). Congressional trades: 3 sells (Liccardo, Newhouse, Whitehouse) and 2 buys (Fields) — small amounts, not material. Short interest is 44.4% of total float (68.8M shares), elevated and potentially a contrarian bullish signal if a short squeeze develops. The insider selling diverges from the bullish analyst initiation, but the institutional buying and short interest create a mixed cross-platform picture.

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status