The cluster signals disagreement among informed investors. Hotchkis & Wiley's large active addition is a bullish signal, but the net selling and notable trims by First Eagle and Marshall Wace warrant caution. Monitor upcoming earnings for advertising revenue trends and any further 13F filings for confirmation of conviction. The 83% historical win rate on NCMI reports suggests the stock may have upside, but the calibration data indicates lower probability of positive moves at higher impact scores.
Executive Summary
Institutional cluster for NCMI shows mixed conviction in Q1 2026: 7 buyers added $1.2M while 6 sellers reduced $5.8M, resulting in net selling of ~$4.6M. Hotchkis & Wiley significantly increased its position (+33%, now $24.1M), while First Eagle and Marshall Wace trimmed notably. The net selling pressure is modest relative to NCMI's $340M market cap, but the divergence among active managers suggests uncertainty about the cinema advertising recovery.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: -$4.6M
▲ Buyers (7)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | ADD | +33% | $24.1M | $990.0K |
▼ Sellers (6)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment Management | TRIM | -65.3% | $4.9M | -$3.6M |
| Marshall Wace | TRIM | -27.3% | $2.5M | -$1.1M |
| Morgan Stanley | TRIM | -47.1% | $1.1M | -$651.3K |
Key Facts
- Hotchkis & Wiley added 33% to its NCMI position, now holding $24.1M (7.1% of market cap)
- First Eagle trimmed 65.3% of its stake, reducing from $4.9M to $1.3M
- Marshall Wace trimmed 27.3%, selling $1.1M of its $2.5M position
- Net institutional selling of ~$4.6M, or about 1.35% of market cap
- Passive funds (Fidelity, T. Rowe, BofA) made small additions, while active managers dominated both sides
Financial Impact
Net institutional selling of approximately $4.6 million in Q1 2026, with $1.2 million in new buying and $5.8 million in selling. Hotchkis & Wiley's $990K addition was the largest buy; First Eagle's $3.55M trim was the largest sell.
Risk Factors
- Continued institutional selling pressure if the advertising recovery stalls
- Potential overhang from First Eagle's remaining $1.3M position if further trimmed
- Cinema attendance and ad spending remain cyclical and uncertain
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-NCMI-2026-Q1 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 4, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $4.09 $2.51 | ▼ −38.63% | ▼ −38.03% | — |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.97 $4.00 | ▲ +0.76% | ▲ +1.17% | — |
Jun 14, 2026 15w ago | Institutional Cluster | $3.57 $3.99 | ▲ +11.76% | ▲ +12.51% | — |
May 12, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $2.98 $3.58 | ▲ +20.13% | ▲ +20.75% | — |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.37 $3.62 | ▲ +7.42% | ▲ +1.77% | — |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.37 $3.62 | ▲ +7.42% | ▲ +1.77% | — |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.37 $3.62 | ▲ +7.42% | ▲ +1.77% | — |
Mar 27, 2026 27w ago | DEFA14A | $3.04 $3.55 | ▲ +16.78% | ▲ +4.04% | — |
US Market Status
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