The third straight guidance reduction signals that operational recovery is not imminent, and the 5% pass sales decline threatens FY2027 revenue. Monitor fall pass selling season updates in Q4 (September). Net debt at 3.5x limits financial flexibility — the dividend is currently covered but at risk if the downturn persists through next season.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Vail Resorts reported Q3 FY2026 GAAP EPS of $8.81 diluted ($9.43 YTD), missing the $9.00 consensus by -2.1%, while Q3 total net revenue of $1.205B missed the $1.21B estimate. The company reduced its full-year guidance again (Resort EBITDA now $735M-$755M vs prior $745M-$775M), and early season pass sales for 2026-2027 dropped ~5% in dollars vs the prior year. The ongoing weather-driven revenue decline was partially mitigated by cost discipline and Resource Efficiency Transformation savings, but the fundamental headwinds remain severe.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 GAAP diluted EPS $8.81 vs consensus $9.00 (miss of -2.1%)
- Resort net revenue decreased 7.0% YoY to $1.205B vs $1.21B estimate
- Full-year Resort EBITDA guidance reduced to $735M-$755M from $745M-$775M three months ago
- Full-year net income guidance cut to $128M-$162M from $144M-$190M
- Early pass sales for 2026-2027: units -10%, sales dollars -5% year-over-year
- Net debt leverage increased to 3.5x trailing EBITDA from 3.1x in January 2026
- Skier visits down 15.5% for Q3 and 12.5% YTD from the prior year
- Mountain Reported EBITDA declined 8.8% for Q3 and 9.5% YTD
- Resource Efficiency Transformation on track for $106M annualized savings
- Dividend maintained at $2.22/quarter ($8.88 annualized)
Financial Impact
Resort net revenue down $90.4M (-7.0%) and Resort Reported EBITDA down $61.3M (-9.5%) in Q3 vs prior year
Risk Factors
- Second consecutive quarterly guidance reduction confirms worsening weather-driven demand
- Early 2026-2027 pass sales down 5% in dollars threatens next year's revenue base
- Net debt leverage rising from 3.1x to 3.5x as cash flows decline
- Potential for further guidance cuts if Australian/European summer season disappoints
- Continued climate-related visitation risk to Rockies destination resorts
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000812011-26-000025 |
| Document: mtn-20260608.htm | 0000812011-26-000025 |
| Document: 0000812011-26-000025-index-headers.html | 0000812011-26-000025 |
| Document: 0000812011-26-000025-index.html | 0000812011-26-000025 |
| Document: 0000812011-26-000025.txt | 0000812011-26-000025 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000812011-26-000025 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 11, 2026 21d ago | DEFA14A | $140.09 $139.80 | ▲ +0.21% | ▼ −0.01% | $141.16 (−0.76%) |
Sep 2, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $136.06 $140.09 | ▲ +2.96% | ▲ +4.11% | $141.16 (+3.75%) |
Jun 8, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $131.26 $134.40 | ▼ −2.39% | ▲ +0.02% | $141.16 (−7.54%) |
Apr 23, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $123.43 $122.16 | ▲ +1.03% | ▲ +2.51% | $141.16 (−14.36%) |
Mar 16, 2026 28w ago | Insider Cluster | $131.72 $129.37 | ▼ −1.78% | ▲ +0.26% | $141.16 (+7.16%) |
US Market Status
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