The significant one-time charges in Q4 2025 present a potential buying opportunity if the market overreacts, as the core business (adjusted EBITDA) showed strength. Traders should monitor the recovery in U.S. phosphate demand and the execution of the company's 2026 production guidance, particularly the ramp-up of ammonia production from the Faustina plant.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
The Mosaic Company reported a significant net loss of $519 million in Q4 2025, primarily due to $422 million in pre-tax notable items, including a $189 million impairment on the Carlsbad asset, a $110 million goodwill impairment in Mosaic Fertilizantes, and a $261 million tax reserve. Despite this, full-year 2025 net income improved to $541 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 10% to $2.4 billion, driven by higher potash prices and volumes. The company expects a recovery in demand in 2026.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q4 2025 net loss was $519 million, a significant decline from a $169 million profit in Q4 2024.
- The loss was driven by $422 million in pre-tax notable items, including a $189 million asset impairment, $110 million in goodwill impairments, and a $261 million tax reserve.
- Full-year 2025 net income was $541 million, up from $175 million in 2024.
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $2.4 billion, a 10% increase from 2024, driven by the Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments.
- The company expects 2026 production volumes to be at or above 7 million tonnes for Phosphates and approximately 9 million tonnes for Potash.
Financial Impact
The $519 million net loss in Q4 2025 was a $688 million decline from the prior year's quarter. Full-year net income improved by $366 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $219 million for the year.
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Phosphates | $1.0K | -12.9% |
| Potash | $686.00 | +23.4% |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes | $1.1K | +4.7% |
Risk Factors
- The $261 million tax reserve in Brazil is a significant risk and could indicate further regulatory or operational challenges in the region.
- High sulfur costs, which rose to $306 per tonne in Q4, are expected to further pressure margins in 2026, with each $10 increase reducing quarterly EBITDA by $10 million.
- The company's free cash flow was negative $535 million in 2025, driven by a $428 million inventory build-up, which could strain liquidity if demand recovery is delayed.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (MOS) — Batch item 1 | 0001285785-26-000013 |
| Document: pressreleaseq42025-ex991.htm | 0001285785-26-000013 |
| Document: mos-20260224.htm | 0001285785-26-000013 |
| Document: 0001285785-26-000013-index-headers.html | 0001285785-26-000013 |
| Document: 0001285785-26-000013-index.html | 0001285785-26-000013 |
| Document: 0001285785-26-000013.txt | 0001285785-26-000013 |
| 8-K Filing (MOS) — Batch item 7 | 0001285785-26-000013 |
| CONTEXT: Previous Earnings (2026-02-24) | 0001285785-26-000013 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 17, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $21.23 $25.46 | ▲ +19.92% | ▲ +21.90% | $21.07 (−0.75%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $23.47 $26.53 | ▲ +13.04% | ▲ +13.95% | $21.07 (−10.23%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 424B5 | $23.47 $26.53 | ▲ +13.04% | ▲ +13.95% | $21.07 (−10.23%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $22.69 $21.51 | ▼ −5.20% | ▼ −6.98% | $21.07 (−7.14%) |
May 11, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $21.79 $21.28 | ▲ +2.34% | ▲ +2.04% | $21.07 (+3.30%) |
Apr 8, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $26.62 $23.26 | ▲ +12.62% | ▲ +21.17% | $21.07 (+20.85%) |
Feb 24, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $26.75 $26.19 | ▲ +2.11% | ▼ −3.13% | $21.07 (+21.25%) |
US Market Status
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