The guidance cut is the dominant signal — FY2026 consolidated EBITDA guidance was slashed by ~18% from $430M to $345-360M, with OSB swinging to a $40M loss. This reflects structural weakness in OSB pricing and volumes that will persist through 2026. Traders should expect downward analyst revisions and potential multiple compression. Monitor housing starts data and OSB benchmark prices for signs of stabilization before re-entering.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
LPX reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.39, significantly beating the $0.09 consensus, but revenue of $574M missed the $569.9M estimate. However, the headline numbers are deeply negative: revenue fell 21% YoY, net income dropped 70%, and the company lowered its full-year 2026 guidance for both Siding and OSB segments, projecting a 2% decline in Siding net sales and a $40M OSB Adjusted EBITDA loss. The strong EPS beat is a non-GAAP adjusted figure that masks the underlying deterioration in the core OSB business and a weak demand environment.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.39, down 70% YoY from $1.30
- Q1 2026 revenue of $574M, down 21% YoY from $724M
- OSB segment net sales fell 37% YoY to $168M; OSB Adjusted EBITDA was -$12M vs +$54M a year ago
- Siding net sales fell 10% YoY to $360M on 18% lower volumes, partially offset by 9% higher prices
- Full-year 2026 guidance lowered: Siding net sales now expected to decline 2% YoY (vs prior guidance of 2% growth)
- Full-year 2026 OSB Adjusted EBITDA guided to -$40M (vs prior guidance of breakeven)
- Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY2026 lowered to $345-360M from prior $430M
- Cash used in operations was $38M in Q1 2026 vs $64M provided a year ago
- Total liquidity fell to ~$900M from ~$1B at year-end 2025
Financial Impact
Revenue decline of $149M YoY; net income decline of $64M; full-year EBITDA guidance cut by ~$70-85M
Risk Factors
- Further deterioration in OSB pricing and demand could drive additional guidance cuts
- Siding volume decline of 18% suggests broader housing market weakness beyond OSB
- Cash burn from operations ($38M used) and elevated capex ($390M guided) pressure balance sheet
- Lowered full-year guidance creates risk of further negative revisions if Q2 results disappoint
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000060519-26-000019 |
| Document: lpx-20260506.htm | 0000060519-26-000019 |
| Document: 0000060519-26-000019-index-headers.html | 0000060519-26-000019 |
| Document: 0000060519-26-000019-index.html | 0000060519-26-000019 |
| Document: 0000060519-26-000019.txt | 0000060519-26-000019 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000060519-26-000019 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $68.81 $64.55 | ▲ +6.19% | ▲ +6.51% | $65.04 (+5.48%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $77.36 $68.31 | ▲ +11.70% | ▲ +11.10% | $65.04 (+15.93%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $72.43 $71.26 | ▼ −1.62% | ▼ −4.60% | $65.04 (−10.20%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $72.49 $73.79 | ▼ −1.79% | ▲ +0.99% | $65.04 (+10.28%) |
May 1, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $71.26 $74.53 | ▲ +4.59% | ▼ −0.70% | $65.04 (−8.73%) |
Mar 20, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $69.92 $73.70 | ▲ +5.41% | ▼ −3.91% | $65.04 (−6.98%) |
US Market Status
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