BMO's initiation is a modest positive but its below-consensus PT suggests limited conviction. With earnings in 7 days and a 55% short interest, position for volatility — a beat could trigger a short squeeze while a miss could accelerate downside. Wait for earnings before taking a directional bet.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BMO Capital initiated coverage on Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) with an Outperform rating and a $518 price target, implying 24.8% upside from the current $415.10. The call adds a fresh bullish voice ahead of earnings on July 16, though BMO's PT is 8% below the consensus mean of $563.35 and 10% below the median $574. Consensus remains heavily bullish with 28 of 40 analysts at Buy or Strong Buy (70%) and only 1 Sell. BMO's track record is average at 53% accuracy on 1,842 calls with a 2.3% average return. Recent analyst momentum is positive with 1 initiation and 0 downgrades in the last 30 days, while EPS revisions show 2 upward revisions for the current quarter but 2 downward for the next fiscal year. Insider selling is light and non-clustered, with small sales by an officer and director totaling roughly $210k in early June, while short interest sits at an elevated 55.1% of float. The high short interest combined with bullish consensus and imminent earnings creates a binary event — a beat could spike the stock, while a miss could trigger sharp selling. Bottom line: BMO's initiation reinforces the bullish case but its conservative PT suggests limited near-term upside until the earnings catalyst.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 40 analysts, 11 rate Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 11 Hold, and 1 Sell, giving a 70% bullish consensus (28 out of 40) and only 2.5% bearish. The consensus is directionally bullish but BMO's Outperform aligns with the majority view.
Consensus mean PT is $563.35, median $574, high $750, low $366. BMO's $518 PT is 8.0% below the mean and 9.8% below the median, making it one of the more conservative bullish targets. At $415.10, the stock offers 35.7% upside to the mean and 24.8% to BMO's target.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | BMO Capital | initiate | Outperform | $518.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $430.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $520.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $651.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leerink Partners | maintain | Outperform | $573.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $610.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $580.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | BTIG | reiterate | Buy | $574.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $580.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $525.00 |
In the past 30 days, there has been 1 analyst initiation (BMO's Outperform) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions show 2 upward revisions in the last 30 days for the current quarter and full year, but 2 downward revisions for the next fiscal year, indicating near-term optimism tempered by longer-term caution.
Firm Track Record — BMO Capital
BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1842 calls | avg return: 2.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 100% | 3/3 | 9.9% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 5/5 | 12.1% | top tier |
| Stifel | 100% | 4/4 | 11.7% | top tier |
| BTIG | 91% | 10/11 | 14.5% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 86% | 6/7 | 9.9% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 75% | 6/8 | 7.9% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 71% | 5/7 | 6.3% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 67% | 2/3 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Barclays | 67% | 2/3 | 11.3% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 64% | 7/11 | 3.6% | top tier |
BMO Capital has a 53% accuracy rate on 1,842 calls with an average return of 2.3%. Among 15 firms covering ISRG, BTIG leads at 91% accuracy on 11 calls (avg return 14.5%), while Raymond James lags at 33% on 3 calls (avg return -0.9%). BMO's accuracy is near the average of the peer set.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 16, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $2.50 | $2.41 — $2.61 | $2.8B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.59 | $2.44 — $2.75 | $2.9B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $10.42 | $10.14 — $10.76 | $11.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $11.79 | $10.86 — $12.61 | $13.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show small sells: Brocius Mark sold ~$39k in total across 4 days (June 9-12) and LOEB GARY sold ~$170k on June 10 — no insider buys. Short interest is 55.1% of float, extremely elevated. Institutional activity is mixed: Assenagon trimmed 42.7% while Empowered Funds doubled (+143%). No congressional trades. The high short interest diverges from the bullish analyst consensus and could amplify any earnings surprise.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2026 16d ago | Insider Cluster | $382.29 $398.30 | ▲ +4.19% | ▲ +1.62% | $391.95 (+2.53%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $374.48 $367.07 | ▼ −1.98% | ▼ −3.09% | $391.95 (+4.67%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | Court Ruling | $401.27 $374.48 | ▲ +6.68% | ▲ +4.71% | $391.95 (+2.32%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $401.27 $397.72 | ▼ −0.88% | ▼ −0.44% | $391.95 (−2.32%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $401.27 $397.72 | ▼ −0.88% | ▼ −0.44% | $391.95 (−2.32%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $401.27 $397.72 | ▼ −0.88% | ▼ −0.44% | $391.95 (−2.32%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $352.97 $373.71 | ▲ +5.88% | ▲ +2.25% | $391.95 (+11.04%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $345.42 $332.02 | ▼ −3.88% | ▼ −3.19% | $391.95 (+13.47%) |
Jul 9, 2026 12w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $411.55 $402.33 | ▼ −2.24% | ▼ −2.11% | $391.95 (−4.76%) |
Jun 12, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $416.55 $402.95 | ▼ −3.26% | ▼ −1.88% | $391.95 (−5.91%) |
US Market Status
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