Goldman's extreme contrarian call is a red flag but not a trade signal on its own — the firm's INTU track record is mediocre and EPS revisions are rising. Watch for follow-through downgrades from other firms; if the Street starts to converge lower, the $276 target becomes more credible. For now, the insider buying and institutional inflows suggest dip-buying interest.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Goldman Sachs double-downgraded Intuit (INTU) from Neutral to Sell on June 2, slashing its price target to $276 from $519 — a 47% cut and the lowest target on the Street. The call is sharply contrarian: consensus is 97% Buy/Hold with zero Sell ratings, a mean target of $502, and a high of $921. Goldman's 54% accuracy on 2,921 calls and below-average track record on INTU (50% on 2 calls) tempers the signal, but the magnitude of the PT cut and the double-downgrade are extreme. EPS revisions are strongly positive — 27 upward revisions in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year — diverging from Goldman's bearish view. Insider buying by President Vasant Prabhu ($542K in late May) and small congressional buys provide a modest contra-signal. The bottom line: a high-conviction contrarian call from a firm with mediocre INTU accuracy, but the PT gap to consensus is so wide it demands attention.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 31 of 41 analysts rate Buy (12 Strong Buy, 19 Buy), 10 Hold, 0 Sell. Goldman's Sell is the only Sell rating on the Street. The consensus direction is strongly positive, making this a pure contrarian call.
Mean target is $502.02, median $482.50, high $921, low $315. At $353.76, INTU trades 30% below the mean target. Goldman's $276 target is 45% below the prior low and implies 22% downside from current levels — a massive outlier.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Goldman Sachs | downgrade | Sell | $276.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $500.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Freedom Broker | downgrade | Hold | $430.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $360.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $400.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $591.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $410.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $360.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | BMO Capital | maintain | Outperform | $412.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $500.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 2 downgrades (Goldman and Freedom Broker) and 0 upgrades. However, EPS revisions are strongly positive: 27 upward revisions in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year (0 down), and 26 up for next year (3 down). Estimates are being revised higher even as ratings turn negative — a clear divergence.
Firm Track Record — Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs accuracy: 54% on 2921 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | 100% | 2/2 | 3.8% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 2.7% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 67% | 2/3 | 13.4% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 4/6 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 60% | 3/5 | 2.7% | above average |
| Stifel | 60% | 3/5 | -2.7% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 0.3% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 60% | 3/5 | 1.7% | above average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 4/8 | 2.7% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | -0.8% | below average |
Goldman Sachs has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,921 scored calls with a +5.6% average return. On INTU specifically, they are 1-for-2 (50%) with a -1.6% average return, ranking below average among covering firms. Top-tier firms on INTU include Susquehanna (100% on 2 calls), BofA (80% on 5), and Scotiabank (67% on 3).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.59 | $3.49 — $3.72 | $4.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $4.04 | $3.66 — $4.51 | $4.4B | ↑17 ↓0 |
| 0y | $23.83 | $23.68 — $23.96 | $21.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $27.32 | $26.37 — $28.93 | $23.9B | ↑4 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trading shows a bullish signal: President Vasant Prabhu bought $542K in late May, directly opposing the downgrade. Congressional activity is mixed but leans slightly bullish with 4 small buys vs 1 small sell. Institutional moves are mixed: Norges Bank opened a $3.1B position and Renaissance opened a $176M position, while Two Sigma more than doubled its stake. Short interest is elevated at 59.7% of TRF volume, suggesting crowded bearish positioning. The insider buys and institutional inflows converge against the Goldman downgrade.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2026 22d ago | S-3ASR | $312.77 $313.13 | ▲ +0.12% | ▲ +0.61% | $280.16 (−10.43%) |
Sep 2, 2026 29d ago | Press Release | $342.94 $312.77 | ▲ +8.80% | ▲ +7.84% | $280.16 (+18.31%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $345.88 $342.94 | ▲ +0.85% | ▲ +0.73% | $280.16 (+19.00%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $281.53 $315.50 | ▼ −12.07% | ▼ −11.59% | $280.16 (+0.49%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $289.92 $303.91 | ▼ −4.83% | ▼ −6.05% | $280.16 (+3.37%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.16 (+4.96%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Institutional Cluster | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.16 (+4.96%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
US Market Status
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