The massive EPS beat is entirely non-operational (derivative gains), while core revenue and cash margins are deteriorating. The aggressive buyback ($200M in Q2) is supporting FCF per share but cannot offset the underlying commodity price headwind. Monitor natural gas strip prices and the company's ability to maintain production volumes at 605-620 Bcfe; the maintained guidance provides a floor but the revenue trajectory is clearly bearish.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CNX Resources reported Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $1.32, significantly above the consensus estimate of $0.55, driven by a $176M gain on commodity derivative instruments. However, natural gas, NGL and oil revenue fell sharply to $389M from $485M in the year-ago quarter, reflecting a 42% decline in the average realized natural gas price before hedging to $2.40/Mcf. The company maintained its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDAX guidance of $1.265-$1.315B and FCF guidance of $525M, while raising its FCF per share forecast to $3.55 from $3.41, supported by increased environmental attribute sales and aggressive share repurchases ($200M in Q2). The combination of a massive EPS beat driven by non-cash hedging gains and a steep decline in core revenue creates a mixed picture for traders.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $1.32 vs consensus of $0.55 (beat by 140%).
- Natural gas, NGL and oil revenue fell to $389M from $485M in Q2 2025, a decline of ~20%.
- Average realized natural gas price before hedging dropped to $2.40/Mcf from $2.84/Mcf YoY.
- Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDAX guidance maintained at $1.265B-$1.315B.
- Full-year 2026 FCF guidance maintained at $525M; FCF per share guidance raised to $3.55 from $3.41.
- Aggressive share repurchases of $200M in Q2 2026, up from $54M in Q1 2026.
- Net debt reduced to $2.215B from $2.361B at end of Q1 2026.
- Environmental attributes sales FCF impact guidance raised to $80M from $70M.
Financial Impact
Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $203M vs $433M in Q2 2025. Core revenue (natural gas, NGL and oil) declined ~20% YoY to $389M. Adjusted EBITDAX was $290M vs $332M in Q2 2025. Free cash flow was $138M in Q2 2026.
Risk Factors
- Further decline in natural gas prices would compress cash margins and reduce free cash flow.
- The large unrealized derivative gains are non-cash and could reverse, creating volatility in reported earnings.
- Aggressive share repurchases reduce liquidity and increase financial leverage if cash flows deteriorate.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001070412-26-000056 |
| Document: cnx-20260730.htm | 0001070412-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001070412-26-000056-index-headers.html | 0001070412-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001070412-26-000056-index.html | 0001070412-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001070412-26-000056.txt | 0001070412-26-000056 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001070412-26-000056 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $34.61 $36.11 | ▲ +4.33% | ▲ +0.37% | $31.50 (−8.99%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $34.61 $36.11 | ▲ +4.33% | ▲ +0.37% | $31.50 (−8.99%) |
Mar 26, 2026 27w ago | DEFA14A | $40.58 $38.52 | ▼ −5.08% | ▼ −17.82% | $31.50 (−22.38%) |
Mar 26, 2026 27w ago | DEFA14A | $40.58 $38.52 | ▼ −5.08% | ▼ −17.82% | $31.50 (−22.38%) |
Feb 24, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $38.74 $40.38 | ▲ +4.23% | ▲ +9.47% | $31.50 (−18.69%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access