The initiation adds to a bullish consensus with a PT above the mean, but the high short interest and insider selling warrant caution. Traders should watch for a catalyst (e.g., earnings) to trigger a short squeeze, but the mid-accuracy firm and lack of contrarian signal limit conviction.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Freedom Broker initiated coverage on CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) at Buy with a $40 price target, implying 42.3% upside from the current $28.10. The firm has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls and an average return of 11.8%, placing it in the middle tier among covering analysts. Consensus is heavily bullish with 13 of 20 analysts at Buy/Strong Buy, 7 at Hold, and none at Sell. The mean price target is $37.17, with a high of $43 and a low of $32. Recent momentum is positive — 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades in the past 30 days, and EPS revisions have been net positive over 30 days (7 up vs 4 down for next year). Insider selling has occurred, including a $232K sale by a director in early June, but institutional buying from Bank of America (+26.6%) and Ameriprise (+96%) provides a bullish cross-signal. Short interest is elevated at 66% of float, suggesting potential squeeze risk. The initiation from a mid-accuracy firm aligns with consensus direction, making this a supportive but not contrarian call.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 65% Buy/Strong Buy (13 of 20 analysts), 35% Hold (7 analysts), and 0% Sell. The direction is firmly bullish, with no bearish ratings on the street.
Mean PT is $37.17, median $36.50, high $43, low $32. Current price $28.10 implies 32.3% upside to the mean. Freedom Broker's $40 target is above the mean and median, ranking as the second-highest target behind Needham's $43.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Freedom Broker | initiate | Buy | $40.00 |
| 2026-05-28 | Barclays | initiate | Overweight | $35.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $35.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $37.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $38.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | Needham | maintain | Buy | $43.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $38.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $34.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $33.50 |
| 2026-02-20 | BTIG | maintain | Buy | $37.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions over 30 days are net positive for next year (7 up, 4 down) and for the current quarter (7 up, 3 down), though the current quarter estimate has ticked down slightly from $0.6319 to $0.6244.
Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker
Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 11 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Davidson | 100% | 3/3 | 25.3% | top tier |
| B. Riley Securities | 100% | 2/2 | 18.7% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 100% | 4/4 | 15% | top tier |
| UBS | 75% | 3/4 | 11.2% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 75% | 3/4 | 10.4% | top tier |
| Needham | 71% | 5/7 | 4.9% | top tier |
| JMP Securities | 70% | 7/10 | 13.8% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 67% | 4/6 | 12.3% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 67% | 2/3 | 8.7% | top tier |
| BTIG | 67% | 2/3 | 16.2% | top tier |
Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls with an 11.8% average return, placing it in the middle tier. Top firms include DA Davidson (100% on 3 calls, +25.3% avg return), B. Riley (100% on 2, +18.7%), and Oppenheimer (100% on 4, +15%). Jefferies is the weakest at 33% on 3 calls with a 0.5% avg return.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $2.91 | $2.69 — $3.26 | $1.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.62 | $0.54 — $0.67 | $257.0M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $2.51 | $2.36 — $2.59 | $1.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.61 | $0.59 — $0.64 | $249.9M | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling: a director sold $232K on June 1, and three other insiders sold $432K in early April. Institutional activity is mixed — Bank of America added 26.6% and Ameriprise added 96%, while Wellington trimmed 25.4% and Point72 cut 53.3%. Short interest is 66% of float, a high level that could fuel a squeeze on positive catalysts. No congressional trades reported.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | 8-K | $34.23 $34.43 | ▲ +0.57% | ▲ +1.72% | $30.02 (−12.30%) |
Aug 18, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $37.04 $36.20 | ▼ −2.27% | ▼ −1.88% | $30.02 (−18.95%) |
Aug 14, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $37.44 $36.85 | ▼ −1.58% | ▼ −0.21% | $30.02 (−19.82%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $36.18 $36.22 | ▲ +0.11% | ▲ +0.51% | $30.02 (−17.03%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $36.24 $34.50 | ▲ +4.80% | ▲ +5.73% | $30.02 (+17.16%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $36.24 $34.50 | ▼ −4.80% | ▼ −5.73% | $30.02 (−17.16%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $27.17 $30.02 | ▲ +10.49% | ▲ +9.82% | $30.02 (+10.49%) |
May 28, 2026 18w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $30.35 $27.25 | ▼ −10.21% | ▼ −10.17% | $30.02 (−1.09%) |
Apr 22, 2026 23w ago | DEFA14A | $37.48 $36.67 | ▼ −2.16% | ▼ −3.64% | $30.02 (−19.90%) |
Apr 20, 2026 23w ago | Press Release | $37.86 $36.95 | ▼ −2.40% | ▼ −3.49% | $30.02 (−20.71%) |
US Market Status
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