The double upgrade from JP Morgan adds conviction to an already bullish consensus, but the CEO's large April sell suggests insiders are taking profits. Traders should view the upgrade as a positive catalyst but monitor for any additional insider sales before adding new long exposure.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
JP Morgan double-upgraded BlackRock from Neutral to Overweight on July 16, 2026, raising its price target 17% to $1,364 from $1,165. The firm, with a 57% accuracy rate on 7 BLK calls and a 4.9% average return, now joins a heavily bullish consensus: 19 of 23 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy (82.6%), 4 rate Hold, and none rate Sell. The mean price target stands at $1,258.63, median $1,260, with a high of $1,383 and low of $1,105; JP Morgan's new target sits above the mean and median. EPS estimates have been revised upward over the past 30 days for both the current and next fiscal years, with zero downward revisions. However, CEO Laurence Fink sold approximately $35 million in BLK shares in late April, a bearish insider signal that diverges from the analyst upgrade. Institutional activity is mixed, with one large add and one near-exit. The double upgrade reinforces the bullish narrative, but the insider selling tempers conviction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
The consensus is heavily bullish: 4 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 23 analysts. That equates to 82.6% Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The direction is firmly positive, with no bearish ratings.
Current price is $1,093.40. The mean price target is $1,258.63, median $1,260, high $1,383, low $1,105. The mean implies 15.1% upside. JP Morgan's $1,364 target is above the mean and median, and 8.4% below the high of $1,383.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $1,245.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $1,488.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | maintain | Outperform | $1,300.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $1,320.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $1,450.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | JP Morgan | upgrade | Overweight | $1,364.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $1,383.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $1,145.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | maintain | Outperform | $1,275.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $1,340.00 |
In the last 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (JP Morgan) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are uniformly positive: current quarter EPS revised up from $12.53 to $12.67, next quarter from $13.48 to $13.98, current year from $53.16 to $54.13, and next year from $60.71 to $62.23. All revision counts show upward moves with zero downward revisions.
Firm Track Record — JP Morgan
JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 5701 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 80% | 4/5 | 12.8% | top tier |
| Argus Research | 75% | 3/4 | 12.9% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 75% | 6/8 | 6.2% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 67% | 2/3 | 13.2% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 67% | 2/3 | 4.5% | top tier |
| Barclays | 58% | 7/12 | 5.7% | above average |
| Morgan Stanley | 58% | 7/12 | 5.7% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 57% | 4/7 | 4.9% | above average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 2/4 | 7.9% | below average |
| Deutsche Bank | 50% | 2/4 | 5.9% | below average |
JP Morgan has a 57% accuracy rate on 7 BLK calls with an average return of 4.9%, ranking as 'above average' among covering firms. The best-performing firm is UBS (80% on 5 calls, 12.8% avg return), while the worst is Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (44% on 9 calls, 3.0% avg return). JP Morgan's call is in line with the bullish consensus.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $12.67 | $12.15 — $13.39 | $6.9B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $13.98 | $13.47 — $14.78 | $7.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $54.13 | $52.99 — $56.53 | $28.7B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $62.23 | $58.54 — $66.80 | $32.0B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show CEO Laurence Fink sold ~$35 million in BLK shares on April 28, 2026, and Robert Kapito sold ~$198K on April 27. These are large C-suite sells that diverge from the bullish analyst signal. Congressional trades show two small sells (each $1K-$15K) by Republican members in June/July. Institutional activity is mixed: Assenagon Asset Management added 48.9% ($167M), while Walleye Capital nearly exited (-98.9%) and ABN AMRO trimmed 25.6%. No short interest data is available. The insider selling creates a cautionary divergence.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 2, 2026 today | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $1,070.01 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $1,059.63 (−0.97%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | 3 | $1,167.57 $1,073.45 | ▼ −8.06% | ▼ −7.55% | $1,059.63 (−9.24%) |
Aug 25, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $1,173.21 $1,073.45 | ▼ −8.50% | ▼ −8.65% | $1,059.63 (−9.68%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | Press Release | $1,158.92 $1,053.96 | ▼ −9.06% | ▼ −7.11% | $1,059.63 (−8.57%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Institutional Cluster | $1,148.84 $1,072.03 | ▼ −6.69% | ▼ −5.63% | $1,059.63 (−7.77%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | 13F-HR | $1,136.28 $1,122.29 | ▼ −1.23% | ▼ −0.83% | $1,059.63 (−6.75%) |
Jul 17, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $1,054.11 $1,143.55 | ▲ +8.48% | ▲ +4.36% | $1,059.63 (+0.52%) |
Jul 17, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $1,054.11 $1,143.55 | ▲ +8.48% | ▲ +4.36% | $1,059.63 (+0.52%) |
Jul 17, 2026 11w ago | 144 | $1,072.20 $1,172.46 | ▲ +9.35% | ▲ +4.90% | $1,059.63 (−1.17%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | 144 | $1,072.20 $1,172.46 | ▲ +9.35% | ▲ +4.90% | $1,059.63 (−1.17%) |
US Market Status
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