Seaport's Street-high $500 PT adds bullish fuel, but the 55% short interest and insider sales create a tug-of-war. With earnings May 14, traders should watch for a catalyst-driven breakout above $400; failure to hold could see a squeeze lower.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Seaport Global initiated coverage on Applied Materials (AMAT) at Buy with a $500 price target, the highest on the Street and 28% above the current $391.38 close. The firm's 51% accuracy on 239 calls is below average, but the PT aligns with a strongly bullish consensus — 84% of 43 analysts rate AMAT Buy. The mean target of $424 implies 8.4% upside, while the low of $280 sits 28% below. Momentum is positive: 1 upgrade, 0 downgrades in 30 days, and EPS revisions are tilted up 25-to-0 for the current quarter. However, insider selling of ~$2.1M in February and a 55.2% short ratio signal caution. Institutional flows are mixed — Norges Bank exited a $2.86B position, while Two Sigma added 70%. Earnings are due May 14, just 9 days out, adding event risk. Bottom line: the Street-high PT is a bullish flag, but the high short interest and insider sales warrant a tempered stance ahead of earnings.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 43 analysts covering AMAT, 36 rate it Buy (84%), 7 Hold (16%), and 0 Sell. The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, with Seaport's Buy aligning with the majority view.
Current price: $391.38. Mean target: $424.38 (8.4% upside). Median: $430. High: $500 (Seaport). Low: $280. Seaport's $500 is 18% above the mean and 16% above the median, making it the most aggressive call on the Street.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Seaport Global | initiate | Buy | $500.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | UBS | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-04-13 | B. Riley Securities | maintain | Buy | $485.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | Susquehanna | maintain | Positive | $500.00 |
| 2026-02-25 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $432.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $450.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $420.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Buy | $390.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Stifel | maintain | Buy | $450.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $450.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (Seaport initiation), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: current quarter saw 25 upward revisions vs 0 down in the last 30 days; next quarter 2 up vs 0 down; current year 3 up vs 2 down; next year 5 up vs 1 down. Estimates are being revised higher across the board.
Firm Track Record — Seaport Global
Seaport Global accuracy: 51% on 239 calls | avg return: 1.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 100% | 3/3 | 18.3% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 80% | 4/5 | 11.8% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 75% | 3/4 | 21.4% | top tier |
| UBS | 75% | 3/4 | 30.5% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 75% | 3/4 | 6.3% | top tier |
| Barclays | 67% | 4/6 | 8.5% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 67% | 8/12 | 10.2% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 67% | 2/3 | 8% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 63% | 5/8 | 16.7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 60% | 3/5 | 23.9% | above average |
Seaport Global has a 51% accuracy rate on 239 calls with an average return of 1.5%, placing it below the top-tier firms covering AMAT. Top performers include Jefferies (100% on 3 calls, avg return 18.3%), Evercore (80% on 5, 11.8%), and Keybanc (75% on 4, 21.4%). Seaport's record is middling, but the Street-high PT suggests conviction.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 14, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $2.67 | $2.63 — $2.80 | $7.7B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.87 | $2.55 — $3.17 | $8.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0y | $11.07 | $10.22 — $11.51 | $31.5B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $14.07 | $11.10 — $16.78 | $37.8B | ↑3 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling: $2.1M in sales by executives in late February (Judy Bruner and Adam Sanders). Congressional: one small sell by Sen. John Boozman ($1K-$15K). Institutional: Norges Bank exited a $2.86B position (new then exit), while Two Sigma added 70% ($10.3M). FMR trimmed 44% ($927M). Short interest is elevated at 55.2% of float. The analyst bullishness diverges from insider selling and high short interest — a cautionary signal.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jun 17, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $617.11 $424.21 | ▼ −31.26% | ▼ −33.15% | $540.17 (−12.47%) |
Jun 17, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $617.11 $424.21 | ▼ −31.26% | ▼ −33.15% | $540.17 (−12.47%) |
Jun 17, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $617.11 $424.21 | ▼ −31.26% | ▼ −33.15% | $540.17 (−12.47%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $568.23 $454.01 | ▼ −20.10% | ▼ −21.10% | $540.17 (−4.94%) |
Jun 9, 2026 16w ago | Press Release | $499.21 $438.46 | ▼ −12.17% | ▼ −15.98% | $540.17 (+8.20%) |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $492.17 $441.69 | ▼ −10.26% | ▼ −13.31% | $540.17 (+9.75%) |
May 28, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $450.23 $484.19 | ▲ +7.54% | ▲ +6.62% | $540.17 (+19.98%) |
May 18, 2026 19w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $413.27 $547.66 | ▼ −32.52% | ▼ −27.94% | $540.17 (−30.71%) |
May 14, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $435.77 $525.02 | ▲ +20.48% | ▲ +16.24% | $540.17 (+23.96%) |
May 14, 2026 20w ago | Press Release | $435.77 $525.02 | ▼ −20.48% | ▼ −16.24% | $540.17 (−23.96%) |
US Market Status
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