Institutional Cluster

AA

Alcoa Corp
BEARISH
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed2mo ago
Institutional cluster: 4 buyers, 2 sellers (mixed)
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The heavy selling by two large asset managers (Assenagon and Ninety One UK) represents a significant reduction in institutional exposure, while the buying is from much smaller funds. This imbalance suggests caution; traders should monitor for further institutional distribution and watch for any negative catalysts in the aluminum sector or Alcoa's upcoming earnings.

DirectionBearish
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
AA ▲ +15.95% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -15.95% · α vs SPY -10.93% · entry $42.88 → $49.72
Next anchor: T+60d in 20d
Latest observation: T+44 -28.86% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Jul 28, 03:59 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
+4.87%
call -4.87% · α -3.20%
$44.97
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
+11.00%
call -11.00% · α -5.47%
$47.60
settled 8w ago
T+20d
+15.95%
call -15.95% · α -10.93%
$49.72
settled 5w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 20d

Executive Summary

A mixed institutional cluster in Alcoa (AA) for Q2 2026 shows four smaller asset managers adding or doubling positions totaling $2.3M in net buying, while two large holders—Assenagon Asset Management and Ninety One UK—nearly exited their entire stakes, selling a combined $53.4M. The divergence between small accumulators and major sellers suggests a lack of consensus, with the heavy selling by large funds likely outweighing the smaller buying activity in signaling caution.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
distributing
Buy Value
$5.5M
Sell Value
$55.8M
Net Flow
-$50.3M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: -$50.3M

▲ Buyers (4)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
Erste Asset ManagementDOUBLED+142.4%$2.3M$1.2M
Op Asset ManagementDOUBLED+692.4%$1.2M$1.0M
Sequoia Financial AdvisorsADD+43.2%$467.0K$52.0K
Gateway Investment AdvisersADD+28.6%$1.5M$16.0K

▼ Sellers (2)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
Assenagon Asset ManagementNEAR_EXIT-90.9%$32.8M-$30.4M
Ninety One UkNEAR_EXIT-100%$23.0M-$23.0M

Key Facts

  • 4 buyers added $2.3M in net new positions, led by Erste Asset Management (doubled to $2.3M) and Op Asset Management (doubled to $1.2M).
  • 2 sellers reduced holdings by $53.4M: Assenagon Asset Management near-exited a $32.8M position, and Ninety One UK near-exited a $23.0M position.
  • Net aggregate institutional flow was negative: $53.4M in selling vs $2.3M in buying.
  • No insider open-market buying was detected, and the 13F × Form 4 confluence score is low (10/100, divergent).

Financial Impact

Two large institutional sellers liquidated $53.4M in AA shares, while four smaller buyers accumulated $2.3M, resulting in a net outflow of approximately $51.1M.

institutional ownershipshare price

Risk Factors

  • Large institutional exits may signal fundamental concerns not yet public.
  • The 45-day 13F reporting lag means these positions may have already been adjusted further.
  • No insider buying to corroborate the bullish thesis from the small buyers.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Primary Production of Aluminum
Analyst Consensus
77% bullish (22 analysts)

Investment Themes

Materials & Mining

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-AA-2026-Q2
19 reports for AA
Performance horizon
86% Hit rate 6 of 7 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +18.93%Jul 17, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for AA — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 11, 2026
21d ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$48.26 $44.43▼ −7.94%▼ −7.72%—
Sep 11, 2026
21d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$48.26 $44.43▼ −7.94%▼ −7.72%—
Sep 9, 2026
23d ago
425 / 8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$50.73 $46.26▼ −8.81%▼ −8.15%—
Sep 9, 2026
23d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$50.73 $46.26▼ −8.81%▼ −8.15%—
Sep 9, 2026
23d ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$50.73 $46.26▼ −8.81%▼ −8.15%—
Sep 1, 2026
4w ago
S-4
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$50.89 $50.73▼ −0.31%▼ −0.39%—
Sep 1, 2026
4w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$50.89 $50.73▼ −0.31%▼ −0.39%—
Jul 29, 2026
9w ago
Institutional Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$42.88 $47.60▼ −11.00%▼ −5.47%—
Jul 17, 2026
11w ago
425
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$43.48 $44.24▲ +1.75%▲ +2.17%—
Jul 1, 2026
13w ago
425
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$47.48 $49.01▲ +3.22%▲ +2.96%—
Showing 10 of 19

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (63h 31m)

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Report published Jul 29, 2026